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colafitte on 09 December 2018
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Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

I expected 4M worldwide sold first week (since launch until first sunday) and around 8'5M worldwide at the end of the year so this seems to be on track. Smash is not that popular in Europe as in North America and Japan, but I expect huge sales in USA. For the first week, something like 2'0M US, 700k Europe, 900 JP and around 400k (maybe a little less) in the rest of the world.

Probably will be the biggest launch for an exclusive game ever, but I think Smash will be a lot more frontloaded than Mario, Mario Kart and Pokemon games, so, people expecting 20M sales are going to be disappointed, in my opinion it will be closer to 15M. But who cares, a mega impressive result for the franchise and Nintendo.

If Pokemon Lets Go sold 3m in 3 days, Smash will probably do around 5m in same time period, and around 10m seemes like a lock at end of December. With digital sales game probably is around 150k+ in UK alone, so that would mean closer to 1m in hole Europe, Japan is locked it will sell more than 1m (possible even closer to 1.5m than to 1m), and US probably around 2.5-3m, and few hundred thousand in rest of world.

Smash Bros is game that will be selling hole Switch life span, you will have new Pokemon game, new Mario and Zelda game, maybe even new Mario Kart game, but you will not have new Smash Bros game on Switch. So 15m+ Is a lock, 20m is very possible if game do more than 10m in first month.

Pokemon sold 3M in the same period and i guess it was something like this 1'1M in USA, 800k in EU, 700k JP and 400k rest of the world. Smash is supposed to be close to 2X in USA, but i don't expect that ratio in Europe at all. It will be close to Pokemon Let's Go because i'm pretty sure that in mainland Europe Smash is not as popular and Pokemon Let's Go should probably still be ahead.

But yeah, what you said is perfectly possible, what i said is what I expected from Smash before any news, so i'm not saying this is what happened, i was just explaining my numbers. Its perfectly fine after this news to expect better numbers too.

And the last point, Smash games never had the same legs as other Nintendo games like Mario or Mario Kart, so no, I still don't expect that to change. Brawl sold like 12M i think..., so well, 15-16M for Ultimate is what I expect, it's a huge growth still.