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Here is the week 48 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD % Goal AWN (Change)
PS4 20,410 -99,328 1,421,718 71.1% (+1.0) 144,570 (+24,832)
Switch 120,546 -199,911 2,518,259 63.0% (+3.1) 370,435 (+49,978)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

So yeah, inevitable math is kicking in for both systems with PS4's AWN raising by 25k and Switch's AWN raising by 50k. That means that both systems performed almost equally this week relative to their remaining goal. Switch cruised past 2.5 million. Big question now is how much can December do. November was an improvement with Pokemon's release and some holiday increases, but it looks like December will have to be the big mover for the Switch. As for PS4 Sony has a solid deal going in terms of price-cut + free digital games for the rest of the year, so if PS4 remains as dead as it has so far that'll be an extremely disappointing performance. My personal estimate overshot both consoles a bit this week but not too bad.

Personal Estimates


NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.