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colafitte on 29 November 2018
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RolStoppable said:
colafitte said:

You can't prove any of that. One game that sells 1'5M of course can make a console sold better... If Switch sold 900-950k units until November 26 that's already around a 25% growth YOY and it lacks the rest of days of November. Besides, we don't know exactly how much stock that Mario Kart bundle had either. Like i said, by November 26 Switch could be around 950k too, and if you sum the rest of the days for November, Switch could be perfectly selling around 1'1M...that's a lot of growth YOY, more considering people are waiting for Smash next month.

You don't need to tell me that I can't prove any of that. That's why I am talking about probabilities and likelihoods all along.

If you believe all PR statements to be true, then the range for Switch is 820k-910k until November 26th, and there are only five days missing for the remaining tracking period. The estimate for the whole tracking period is closer to 1.0m than it is to 1.1m. That's not a lot of growth when the month had a big game release, a Black Friday bundle and anticipation for December, as opposed to none of that in the previous year. That's underwhelming.

I'd have to take a closer look at the growth in Japan and the UK, but at a glance the growth in those countries seems to outdo the USA if the 8.2m figure is to believed, and that's without Black Friday being anywhere close to as important in those two countries.

Well, that was my exact first reaction in this thread. 

What i was trying to point with the fact that you can't prove it, is that your theory still need more things to happen than mine. Yours need 8'2M to be wrong and/or 7'4M until November to be wrong and/or period of days being wrong and/or somehow Nintendo screwing the PR. With my theory everything can be right until proved otherwise with facts (for example, an official data of what Switch did last year in the same period or at least some kind of trustworthy leak).

And if Switch sells 1'0-1'1M and you find it disappointing...., well, Nintendo can disappoint, i don't see why not. Sony DEFINITIVELY is going to disappoint me with what they seem are doing with the stock of their bundles so....anything is possible. But it's true too, that if Switch goes from 750k to 1100k (rounding numbers, i don't want to be exact), is still a 45% growth YOY, that's fine with not a new main Pokemon game.