Worldwide Charts Yearly Total - October 13th

[DonFerrari]

Intrinsic said:

DonFerrari said:

Crazier than Sony that only upped their forecast to like 17-17,5 and Nintendo that haven't reduced theirs?

Truth is that nintendo doesn't have to reduce theirs.

Its easy to get FY shipments and Full year sales mixed up cause they overlap.

For the FY apr 2018 -Mar 2019 nintendo plans on shipping 20M and sony is now doing 17.5M. There is alot more to that than just those numbers. 

Total 2018 sales (jan - dec) could very well be 18M+ for sony and 17M+ for nintendo and both will still have a whole FY quarter of shipments left to meet. But at the end of the day, sonys total FY shipments may be at 18.5M (upped again) and nintendos still at 20M. It all comes down to how much was shipped in q4 (jan-mar) FY 2017-2018 and how much of that stock was carried into the new FY. 

If nintendo ships 20 as at the end of the 2018-2019 FY, that may just mean they have an excess going into Q1 2019-2020 FY and they would just ship fewer units then. Same thing happened to sony last year, their total shipments for the year was less than their total sales or something like that.

I haven't mixed both. But considering Switch isn't at scarcity anymore with months without Switch easily available it already have over 1M in the channels, so if they sell 17-18M on the FY and ship another 2-3M for the stuffing the channels they would have issues for the next fiscal year.

Do you really think 1) stores are going to request so much over their need to help Nintendo stuff the channels and 2) will it look good when Nintendo make a projection for FY19 much lower than FY18 and end up looking as they are in decline?

The only way this would make sense is that they think they will sell like 24M in FY19 and only be able to produce like another 20-21M, so they need the extra production during this FY to have enough stock.

Mnementh said:

DonFerrari said:

I'm pretty safe on saying some people still believe that PS4 will be nearer 16M and Switch 20M as their original projections, than PS4 ending ahead.

These 16M and 20M projection are a) for the financial year (ending in March) and b) shipments. Thing about shipments is: early in the life of a console the shipments are bigger than the sales, after the peak sales are bigger than shipments. So going from these projection for the financial year, we still have to conclude big holidays for Ninty, but also big quarter in the new year (after Pokemon and Smash and with NSMBUD releasing). I think with all considered, that Nintendo closely missing it's projection while Sony outdoes it, the Switch will close in on PS4 in the holidays, os that overall years sales are close to each other and Switch does a lot better than PS4 in Q1 2019.

You don't need to preach to the choir... I know it is FY and shipment. Still if Nintendo ends up the calendar year much close to PS4 it will be hard to see why they would ship 2.5M more on the next quarter, after the bigger part of sales was made and just stuff the channel for bragging rights and then need to cut down shipment for the next 1 or 2 quarters and end up doing a much lower projection for the next year and look as already in decline.

Also shipments aren't fruit of solely manufacturer wish, they need stores to order and not only they can't overship forever they also really need to see the flow of units to really require.

JRPGfan said:

DonFerrari said:
So Switch needs 3M extra sales on Holidays to finish ahead of PS4, that will be a big fight.

Yeah its not gonna be easy to catch up to the PS4.

Not an easy task for sure.