Year end NPD predictions

[zorg1000]

Farsala said:

zorg1000 said:

What kind of deals do you expect for December? Last year had $50 off for both models for a week each.

I think it will be similar, but slightly better. Maybe the games included will be better. I think the marketing/ads will be better as well. Not to mention that Spiderman+ PS4 is more December centric than whatever Sony had last year. Lets do an October-December PS4 history to try to explain some of my logic. I will list 2013, but largely ignore it due to launch.

2013:

Nov: 1.14

Dec: .86

2014: 2.20

Oct: .300 (13.6%)

Nov: .83 (37.7%)

Dec: 1.07 (48.6%)

2015: 3.40

Oct: .280 (8.2%)

Nov: 1.54 (45.3%)

Dec: 1.58 (46.5%)

2016: 2.905

Oct: .235 (8.1%)

Nov: 1.1  (37.9%)

Dec: 1.57 (54.0%)

2017: 2.865

Oct: .205? (7.1%)

Nov: 1.58 (55.1%)

Dec: 1.08 (37.7%)

2018: 3.04m prediction

Oct: .340 (11%)

Nov: 1.4m prediction

Dec: 1.3m prediction

So from this info, PS4 2018 holiday season should sell around 2.9m or more since its been up YoY. That leaves 2.56m to be distributed and I predicted 2.7m to be optimistic. October is generally 7-8% of the holiday season, but this October was particularly strong so I predict it is 11%.

November and December split is indeed harder. While the PS4 usually has a stronger December than November, last year put a wrench in that. I think the proportions will become closer this year though, with the slight edge to November.

I had forgotten that Dec was so much higher than Nov in 2016, I was thinking it was an ongoing trend that Dec has been losing sales to Nov for a few years but I guess not.