colafitte said:
I don't consider Switch having more support than 3DS. Yes Switch has Splatoon, but 3DS had main Monster Hunter games plus some exclusives games from the DS era, and both shared Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Metroid, Fire Emblem....... And please..., don't put Diablo III at the same level of "huge deal" as when it launched on PC or at same level of a 3rd party game like a Call of Duty, Battlefield, Asassassin's Creed, Far Cry, GTA, etc.... on PS4 or XBO, they're not remotely at the same level. And Bayonetta and Octopath are as niche as they can be, like Yakuza or Sunset Overdrive levels of 3rd party support niche were for PS4 and XBO....Those games don't represent the success of 3rd party games on PS4 and XBO. That comparison is so unfair. The reason why I don't expect more than 80-85 million Switch console shipped, it's because I don't expect Switch reaching any year 20M+ shipments. The only year that it will be capable is next FY and even if they do, next Fiscal Years won't reach that level. And to reach 100M sales you have to reach those numbers more than one year. Do you really see Switch lasting as a main Nintendo console more than 6 or 7 years?? Even If they make it in 6 years they need 16'6M on average and if it's in 7 they need 14'3M per year. If they ship around 36-38M in its first 2 years they need around 60-65M more in the next 4 or 5 years, thats 4 years more averaging around 16M or 7 years more averaging around 13M. If with a Mario 3D, 3D Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Pokemon game available and selling as good they are not able to reach 20M in a year, how do you expect to mantain an average as high as 16M per year for 4 more years?? No Nintendo console has been able to mantain that level of consistency so many years. If you ask me I expect Switch something like this: 1st FY 2018 18M 2nd FY 2019 18'5M 36'5M LT 3rd FY 2020 17M 53'5M LT -----> After this point I expect 2 things to happen. Saturation with the evergreen titles and the launch of next gen consoles 4th FY 2021 12M 65'5M LT 5th FY 2022 10M 75'5M LT 6th FY 2023 7M 82'5M LT 7th FY 2024 4M 86'5M LT If something like this ends happening and Switch end at PS3/X360 levels it will be a monumental success for Nintendo. I cant' see doing any better than something like this in 7 years...Around 2023-2024 I expect the next Nintendo main console to launch because by then PS5 and next XB would be at their prime and Switch will look super dated. |
Its not point what you considering but about facts, Switch is still less than 2 years on market. Switch also has Monster Hunter and will have brand new Monster Hunter game, Switch has new full 3D Zelda, has new full 3D Mario, Splatoon, it's receiving 3D Metroid Prime, Bayonetta 3, brand new IPs...
But fact is that full handheld Diablo 3 is huge deal for some people, point that Diablo 3 is availible on PC dont change much (most of multi platform games are available on PC) some people were buying Switch just for that game, Switch Diablo 3 bundles were sold out very fast. Just for record, Diablo 3 sold more than 30m copies (30m was at end of 2015.), its very popular game. Point of 3rd party exclusives like Bayonetta and Octopath is that Switch has more diverse lineup of exclusive games, and those kind of games offocurse counts.
Guess what, PS4 also had only one year 20m+ for now. Switch will this year around 20m (18-20m) next year will also be around 20m. Based on what exaclty next year want reach 20m? You do reaslise that even now 2019. Switch lineup looks much stronger than 2018. was, also you do realise that this year Switch still had launch price point while next year will most lilky have price cut and one revision?
Yeah, I definatly see Switch being 6-7 years on market, look how 3DS is managed, look how PS4 and XB1 are managed, Nintendo will do same thing with Switch, multiple revisions and mid gen upgrades. They basically said that, they want that Switch to be longer than usual 6 years on market, and they easily achieve that because Switch has great concept, with unified platform that means undivided support from Nintendo like before and with multiply revisions.
Talking about your predictions, there is no reason to expect that next year will weaker than this year. Also its quite harder to gave predictions for year after next (2020.) because we still dont know what we could expect in that year (what lineup will be, how many revions will be, can we expect futher price cut...but I expect again to have quite stronger sales than 3DS in any case), but here comparison with 3DS for first year, current second year, and next third year:
-1st year and launch - 3DS-17m, Switch-18m (FY 2017.)
-2nd year - 3DS- 14m, Switch-18-20m (FY 2018.)
-3rd year - 3ds- 12.2m, Switch-20m (FY 2019.)
Again, 80m is bare minimum (worst case scenario) that Switch will reach in any case, I dont see how PS3/360 level (that's actually around 85m) can be monumental success for Nintendo when Switch is selling much better than those consoles in same time period.
colafitte said:
Well, this is no science, so i can't proof you my prediction. It's based in my own mental calculations based on what Switch did this year and the history of other Nintendo handheld and home consoles. That projection is based primarly in the fact that a Nintendo console that starts strong tend to peak in their 2nd or 3rd year. In this case i choose peaking in 2nd year because like Wii and N64, its bigger franchises launched their main game in a period of 24 months. That means that Nintendo starts with a bang, with everything they have. The problem is, that after that, and every time has happened the same, Nintendo has decided to milk their succesful games until the end of the gen, with some exceptions like Mario Galaxy 2 and Majora's Mask, and the reason why is....well because it cost time to make very good games, and now they cost more time than never. So what happened with N64 and Wii is that after those 2 phenomeal years, the sales started droping because a)Nintendo could'nt afford to sustain the level of launching games, b) Nintendo did not have triple AAA support and c) the competion was receiving all the attention with new hardware coming. That same situation is what I expect Switch will be during 2019 and 2020, and that's why I expect Switch flat or even less than this year. It's my projection and could be wrong, but that's what happens when you try to figure out the future....XD Edit: And to answer exactly why I don't expect 20M next year...., well because i don't think 20M people will buy a console just for a new Pokemon game, a new Animal Crossing, a 3D Metroid game Smash Bros despite being a evergreen title and games from 2 years before that by then they should start sataruting their own audience if they didn't do it this year. All of this without any new triple AAA support. In fact I expect PS4 to be the best selling console worldwide next year again. |
Well that's interesting, because based on how Switch performing this year all suggest (stronger lineup next year, most likly price cut and revision) it will perform stronger next year not weaker. Talking about comparison with previous Nintendo home consoles and handhelds, it's very clear that Switch is quite different than past Nintendo platforms (because its unified platform and hybrid) and Nintendo changed quite a bit strategy with Switch compared to previous platforms (fact they planing Switch to last more than usual 6 years also proves that), so looking past Nintendo consoles (espacily consoles like Wii or earlier ones) and trying to determine how Switch will perform is totally wrong, espciyl when we talking about generation where mid gen upgrades are normal thing. Also talking about support, like I wrote, what is different with Switch compared to previous Nintendo platforms is that Switch will have full undivided support from Nintendo, Switch will have 2 new 3D Mario games, 2 new 3D Zelda games, 2D Mario, couple of Pokemon games, Smash Bros, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, 3D Metroid, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch..
But if this year Switch selling 18-20m with much weaker lineup than it will be next year, with still launch price point and one revision, how you can suspect that Switch next year will sell less with much stronger lineup, almost certain price cut and one revision? Or even more that next year PS4 will sell more than Switch? PS4 had peak last year, next year will weaker than this year, while Switch easily next year can have stronger sales than it did last year. AAA multi platform games are not was selling Wii, DS and now Switch, you have hard time realising that Nintendo hardware can easily have great sales even without AAA multi platform support.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 22 November 2018
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