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Miyamotoo said: Well yeah, we can only wait and see, but current sales and expected sales at end of second full year are already very good indicator for instance when you comparing it with 3DS. Nintendo will definatly low price point buy time, like I wrote, they said that their ultimate goal with Switch "is to be sell like device per person instead of device per household, but that price point is still not there". I am pretty sure that in some point they they will have more handheld focused Switch revision for $200 or less, and that will be perfect "like device per person". Simple, just look how Switch is selling currently, Switch gimmick is hybrid and its far more stronger than 3D on 3DS. Again Switch will be at around 37m after just after two years with launch price point, 3DS after same period had sales of around 31m, huge price drop and one revision. Actualy talking about sales, I just checked, 3DS had only two years with sales above 13m, in FY 2012. sold 13.5m and in FY 2013 sold 14m, buy comparison Switch sold in its first year 15m (with huge stock problem) and in second year will sell around 18-20m, I can bet that next year will also be around 20m projected. Talking about support and games, Switch is Nintendo unified platform, Switch will have stronger Nintendo support than 3DS had, again, Switch will be home of Nintendo all IPs (handheld and home consoles IPs) that wasnt case with 3DS or even Wii for instance, having 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, 3D Metroid...new IPs, 3rd party exclusives....is huge advantage that Switch has compared to any Nintendo platform. Ports of old games want save Switch but Switch doesnt need save in any case (also its not only point about 1st party games but about 3rd party exlusives also, look at Bayonetta 3 and Octopath Traveler, there will defintly be much more such a projects), but actually ports of old great games makes Switch more appealing outside Nintendo fans because full handheld mode those games have on Switch, for instance Diablo 3 on Switch is huge deal because full handheld mode.
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I don't consider Switch having more support than 3DS. Yes Switch has Splatoon, but 3DS had main Monster Hunter games plus some exclusives games from the DS era, and both shared Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Metroid, Fire Emblem.......
And please..., don't put Diablo III at the same level of "huge deal" as when it launched on PC or at same level of a 3rd party game like a Call of Duty, Battlefield, Asassassin's Creed, Far Cry, GTA, etc.... on PS4 or XBO, they're not remotely at the same level. And Bayonetta and Octopath are as niche as they can be, like Yakuza or Sunset Overdrive levels of 3rd party support niche were for PS4 and XBO....Those games don't represent the success of 3rd party games on PS4 and XBO. That comparison is so unfair.
The reason why I don't expect more than 80-85 million Switch console shipped, it's because I don't expect Switch reaching any year 20M+ shipments. The only year that it will be capable is next FY and even if they do, next Fiscal Years won't reach that level. And to reach 100M sales you have to reach those numbers more than one year.
Do you really see Switch lasting as a main Nintendo console more than 6 or 7 years?? Even If they make it in 6 years they need 16'6M on average and if it's in 7 they need 14'3M per year. If they ship around 36-38M in its first 2 years they need around 60-65M more in the next 4 or 5 years, thats 4 years more averaging around 16M or 7 years more averaging around 13M. If with a Mario 3D, 3D Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Pokemon game available and selling as good they are not able to reach 20M in a year, how do you expect to mantain an average as high as 16M per year for 4 more years?? No Nintendo console has been able to mantain that level of consistency so many years.
If you ask me I expect Switch something like this:
1st FY 2018 18M
2nd FY 2019 18'5M 36'5M LT
3rd FY 2020 17M 53'5M LT -----> After this point I expect 2 things to happen. Saturation with the evergreen titles and the launch of next gen consoles
4th FY 2021 12M 65'5M LT
5th FY 2022 10M 75'5M LT
6th FY 2023 7M 82'5M LT
7th FY 2024 4M 86'5M LT
If something like this ends happening and Switch end at PS3/X360 levels it will be a monumental success for Nintendo. I cant' see doing any better than something like this in 7 years...Around 2023-2024 I expect the next Nintendo main console to launch because by then PS5 and next XB would be at their prime and Switch will look super dated.
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