In progress NPD predicting tool

[globalisateur]

abronn627 said:

globalisateur said:

After the last NPD I think we need to change the methodology, like :

- Put way more weight in the first rankings. Rank 1 should get more way more points. All those Xbox bundles were a problem this month.

- Finally reduce the Amazon weight. It's time (I already talked about that previously). We should weight the retailers using their actual known sales.

If you have time you should try to modify those variables and retrospectively apply them for october until you get the actual results... or at least the correct ranking !

I would say that we don’t necessarily need to adjust the value of each of ones because Gamestop’s way of tracking is not based on actual sales but viewing trend on their website, having the 500M PS4 on their rankings even if it was limited and sold out is pointing to that outcome.

What I would like to suggest is to track preorder separately and do an average based on the numbers of days they where available for preorder, then add the points to the release day totals. This will cause the spike you should expect on the chart without affecting the monthly average.

I think we should also make based on the numbers of skus available, this should prevent false sales spikes like we saw with the Xbox One.

Sold out bundles are already not taken into account.