Japan Sales Week 45 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 05- 11, 2018

[Farsala]

zorg1000 said:

I'm thinking the last 10 weeks of the year will be similar to 3DS in 2011 or 2012

2011
Week 43-65k
Week 44-145k (Super Mario 3D Land, 343k)
Week 45-104k
Week 46-96k
Week 47-121k
Week 48-206k (Mario Kart 7, 423k)
Week 49-350k (Monster Hunter 3G, 522k)
Week 50-368k (Inazuma Eleven Go, 135k)
Week 51-482k
Week 52-198k
Total-2135k

2012
Week 43-61k
Week 44-94k
Week 45-187k (Animal Crossing, 603k)
Week 46-169k
Week 47-162k (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, 121k)
Week 48-167k (Layton vs Ace Attorney, 129k)
Week 49-211k (Paper Mario Sticker Star, 129k)
Week 50-319k (Inazuma Eleven Go 2-168k)
Week 51-411k
Week 52-250k (Fantasy Life, 117k)
Total-2030k

 

Edit: Switch 2017 for reference

Week 43-127k (Super Mario Odyssey, 462k)

Week 44-64k

 Week 45-80k

Week 46-87k

Week 47-145k

Week 48-125k (Xenoblade 2, 98k)

Week 49-165k

Week 50-221k

Week 51-270k

Week 52-135k

Total-1420k

Let's break it down then.

With a 1.42m holiday (43%) Switch sold 3.31m YTD.

With a 2.03m holiday (37%) 3DS sold 5.50m YTD in 2012.

With a 2.14m holiday (50%) 3DS sold 4.28m YTD in 2011.

If you expect a 2.00m holiday (51%) then the Switch will sell 3.90 YTD.

In other words you expect an >50% holiday ratio for the Switch in 2018. Certainly possible but the 3DS had a massive holiday in comparison to the rest of its 2011 due to a 40% price cut. The 3DS in 2012 had a massive holiday, but it also had a massive year, which the Switch isn't really having. The 2 300k+ weeks could be possible due to Smash and Christmas, but the other weeks are iffy.