No Physical Media for Next Gen?

[KBG29]

Physical is not gong anywhere for a long time. It will eventually become a niche market with a higher price tag, but it won't be discontinued anytime soon. If physical media was gong to die, we would have already seen the end of Books, Newspapers, Music, and Movies. The shelf space and demand have shrunk, but it is not dead. As time goes on less and less games will get physical releases, but it will shrink for decade until it reaches a low bar as a niche media, then it will level out.

Next gen will most likely launch with devices that support physical media but options for non PM consoles should pop up over then generation. With PS Now and Game Pass more and more gamers will go to the Netflix business model for their gaming. More people will buy digital for the enhanced value, as platforms expand to more form factors. I think we will leave this gen with PS4/XBO at around 55% digital. Next gen will start off above 50% physical due to early core gamers/collectors adopting first, but will quickly jump to 60 & 70% as the broader market joins the next round.