From what I remembered like 60% of people were saying that the saturation was too great and 40% were saying Spider-Man would lead to huge sales (although it was more like a general claim than any big prediction). Then when the time came and VGC showed small numbers, people instantly rationalized it as saturation, even most of the people who originally thought Spider-Man was gonna be huge didn't think twice about it and just accepted it as saturation.
But either way, I wouldn't be surprised ... either way.
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if these October numbers so far are inflated. Many times that this site had to adjust numbers, they proceed to over compensate in the following weeks which leads to them having to re-adjust back in the other direction.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.