| Shadow1980 said: I haven't participated in this thread since March, but here's my updated analysis. First some relevant charts:
The Switch's 2018 is trailing the PS4's 2015, but only by a narrow 3.9% margin, or about 87k units. Close enough to where the Switch could easily pull ahead by year's end. However, that's a tall task. Q4 2015 was the PS4's best holiday quarter to date. In order to surpass that and make up for its slim deficit as of end-Q3, the Switch will need to have 37% YoY growth in Q4. Various bundles, Pokemon Let's Go, potential Black Friday price cuts, and especially Smash ought to drive significant YoY sales growth, but will it be enough to put the Switch ahead of what the PS4 sold in 2015? I'm not certain. So, I will have to stand by my initial odds of 70-30 in favor of the PS4. The Switch has a shot at taking the lead, but it's a bit of a long shot. |
What do you think about PS4 having it's best year this year? It's up by a decent margin for Q1-Q3, do you think it can keep the lead in Q4?
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
