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Kai_Mao on 24 October 2018
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LipeJJ said:
Manlytears said:

Of course GoW and spider will outsell smash if combined, no way in hell smash can sell over 25-30M copies.

smash Vs Gow Vs spider sure is interesting. I think all of than are going to pass 10M easy, perhaps even surpass 15M.

30m is too much, I agree. That's Mario Kart level and I don't think Smash has that much potential. 25m however... I can totally see it reaching it. My prediction has it doing at least 20m LT. We should know pretty quickly tho, as Nintendo will share their holiday results on late January. It will be a great showing of the game's potential.

I think Smash Bros. Ultimate has great sales potential. Whether it be 15-20 million, we'll have to see.

Several things are in its favor:

- The Switch is selling well and with Smash and Pokemon being the headliners for Nintendo's holiday season, I cannot see how, unless either game falls flat on their faces in the reviews, they can get off to a decent start in sales. As noted by Shadow earlier in his analysis, the Switch is doing ok for now and Pokemon and Smash are tasked to bring it this holiday season. Whereas during the Wii U days, comparatively, the console did not have the greatest momentum despite Smash 4 releasing in the Wii U's best year (2014).

- The big Nintendo games tend to have really impressive legs. Even games like Kirby's Star Allies has popped up in the Japanese charts from time to time months after its release.

- There will likely be a Smash game in the future, but it will probably take a longer time between releases compared to the time frame of Smash 4 and Ultimate. Thus, Smash Bros. Ultimate, if it has great legs, will continue to sell for quite some time.

- Nintendo and Sakurai are marketing Smash Bros. Ultimate as the "biggest crossover in gaming history." That's a nice marketing push. Especially when you have other media creating big crossover events. Take Avengers Infinity War for example. Or, for what its worth, Justice League. Sure, Smash Bros. Ultimate may not end up with $2 billion in revenue, but it can use its big roster of some of the most well-known Nintendo, and third party, characters to its advantage more than ever before.