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potato_hamster on 21 October 2018
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Miyamotoo said:
potato_hamster said:

 If that''s the case, why are GTA V sales higher on PS4 than they are on PS3, even though it's been out for PS3 longer and PS3 still has a larger install base? Or why did Last of us remastered sell more than the original PS3 version despite the much lower install base on release? Or why did Super Mario Galaxy 2 sell 4 million copies less than Super Mario Galaxy even though the install base for Wii was higher for the SMG2 release?

Ohh right, it's because install base only limits the maximum amount of games you can sell, not the ability to sell a high number. Nintendo can not sell another Switch for an entire year and still have millions and millions of Super Mario Odyssey sales to existing Switch owners who have not yet bought it.

Actually VGC numbers show that PS3 version of GTAV sold more than PS4 version of game with similar install base. But in any case you missing simple point, how much GTAV on PS4 sold when PS4 install base was 20m, 40m and now when 80m, or how much TLoU Remaster sold on PS4 when install base was 20m, 40m or now when install base is 80m, 100m? Or in Nintendo case, how much Zelda BotW, MK8D, Odyssey, Splatoon2...will sell when Switch has install base of 40m, 60m or 80m same like PS4 curently, instead of current 20m? Offcourse they will have much stronger sales than they having now.

Thats why is very wrong to compare sales of games on different platforms where one has 4x bigger install base than other. For instance do you think its fair to compare sales of games on 3DS and Vita? Of Course not, 3DS has around 4x bigger install base and of course that will have much better software sales in any case. In those cases attach rate makes much more sense.

VGC numbers don't account for digital sales. GTAV sold 90 million copies as of Feb 8th of this year. VGChartz only accounts for 62 million. PS4 sales are higher than PS3 if you count digital sales.

I'm not missing a simple point. I'm disputing an illogical one. multi-platform game sales on an individual platform are of often times not indicative at all of the proportion of game sales amongst each platform. For example there are plenty of mult-platform games that have higher, equal, or near equal sales on Xbox One vs PS4 sales despite the fact that PS4 has sold over twice as many units vs Xbox One.

Secondly, for most games, the vast majority (over 80%) of a games sales are within the first six months to a year of release, and doesn't increase in any type of linear fashion. Most games do not have the "legs" where sales in year 2, or year 3 or year 4 after release are anywhere near the sales even in the first month of release. Let me put you a great example to illustrate this point: Killzone: Shadow Fall. As of Jan 29th, 2015 (3 months after release) sales topped 2.1 million - making it the most, if not one of the most popular release titles for the PS4. It has recieved no sequels, or experienced anything else that would prevent Killzone fans from obtaining copies. Yet, nearly six years later, total sales are less than 4  million copies. By your logic, shouldn't it have sold at least 10 million copies by now since it sold 2 million copies with just 10 million users to sell to, and now there are another 70 or so million potential Killzone purchasers out there that can now buy the game?

Also, by your logic, shouldn't EA expect Madden sales to increase every single year into a consoles's life, since you know, higher platform sales? Yet, on PS4, Madden 16's sales are higher than Madden 17's sales, which are higher than Madden 18's sales. Madden 19 sales look be falling short of Madden 18's sales at this point as well.

And no all of those Nintendo games wont have "much stronger sales" when the Switch reaches, say, 40 million in total sales. Sure, Mario Odyssey probably will (especially if the bundle it), but Breath of the Wild? Probably not. Let's not forget Twillight Princess was a launch title for the Wii, and Breath of the Wild's sales have already exceeded it despite it having an install base of 100 million units to sell to. Twillight Princess hit 4.5 million in sales 18 months into the wii's life, and only sold another 2.5 million in the years following.