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sundin13 said:
eva01beserk said:

1) If thouse 2 numbers where the same all along just one over a life time the other over a year then just multiply it wont work. I dont know either how to get the real number, but I can be sure its not as high as high as 1 in 5 or even 12.  

2) When the hell did I clam that unreported means false? Straw man much? Dont make up things I said please. I said very clearly that the way they get the unreported figures is all based on asuption. A  survey with no investigation means nothing and Im just saying that number should not be added toghether to the actual reported cases. just gime a reprted cases number and an unreported cases number. I will be happy to use that reported number even if its a wrong cuz it will be closer to the real number. And yes, the video claims its the best source we got. It never claimed or me, that is 100% acurate. I even stated before that i dont belive is still so high but im willing to use it just to play your game.

3) Never claimed you math is off. Its something a kid can do. My issue is with the statistics you are using. For that 34 to be acurate, you would have to asume that ridiculous high rate of assault. 

4) Im not sure where I saw it, but something like 80% off sexual assault cases come from university. and that the majority of thouse cases are things that would not be consider an assault 20 years ago. Dont quote me on this cuz Im trying to remember and might be completly wrong, but seems like a certain group who claim this, so it might be concntrated in certain areas(university/big citys). SO that number squews things off. While it wont change the number total, it could change the areas as where 80% of this might happen. So if your not around or the people you know there is a chance you will not meet any of theese victims. That probably means nothing but just a crazzy thought, if what I remember is correct.

1) Do you have anything to back that up? It seems to me that your argument has largely become "I feel like that doesn't seem right, so it must be wrong", which honestly isn't much of an argument.

2) Just ignoring the fact that sexual violence is often unreported and pretending that those crimes didn't exist does not make your numbers any more accurate. You are ignoring the prevailing body of knowledge and literally everything we know about crime reporting which states that rape is widely under-reported, in order to twist the numbers to somewhat agree with you. Ignoring the majority of sexual violence does not make anything more accurate. While there may be some small portion of false reports in BJS statistics, there is no reason to assume that these outnumber cases which are unreported in BJS statistics or cases that occur before an individual turns 12, or even that these are statistically significant. If anything, these numbers provided by the NCVS are likely to be an underestimate, not an overestimate. To argue that we cannot use the best data we have is to argue that we should not be having this conversation because any alternative you present will be worse. Unless you have a more comprehensive estimate (using only reported crimes is less comprehensive, not more comprehensive), you are not adding to this discussion.

3) So, for my math to be correct, you have to assume that the best estimate available is accurate. I don't consider this to be an issue here...

4) Yes, there are high risk populations, but that doesn't really change anything. We are talking about the average person here. That means that some people will know more individuals who have been victimized and some will know less. Still, the number here is so high that such variation does little to really change the point.

So you will just keep making up things I say. O well.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.