‘Rape Culture’ Is A MYTH | Change My Mind

[eva01beserk]

sundin13 said:

eva01beserk said:

Ok as long as you dont asume that 1 is 5 myth, were good. While I still believe 1 in 1000 is still to unrealistic high, that is something I am confortable using in a hypothetical argument. 

Ok now we are back at square one. How do they know they go unreported? If you go asking person by person if they where asaulted in anyway and they claim yes, but it was not reported to the police, then it still dosent mean much. You cant tell if it was true or false. Cuz again most acounts of asault now days are based on feelings. The most you can count is the 20% as actual numbers, then say theres another 4x as many women who "probably" where asaulted. Wich will bring the number down. Again, we canot asume anybody that just makes a claim is telling the truth.

I have a problem with your math. In what world do you meet 600 people per year? Im 28 and dont think I can name 100 people of the top of my head. If you were to say 600 in a life I would say maybe, but 34k if you start after 12? SO no, you are still way off.

First of all, the 1 in 5 vs 1 in 1000 statistics are fundamentally different. 1 in 5 is over a lifetime and 1 in 1000 is per year. Also, 1 in 5 I believe refers to females only which further inflates the numbers because females are disproportionately victims of sexual violence. If you multiply the 1 in 1000 figure by the average lifespan, it turns into 1 in 12ish and if you account for females only, it would probably shrink to maybe 1 in 8, but that is just a guess (and I'm not sure how valid simple multiplication would be to convert yearly figures to lifetime figures). Basically, don't compare the two numbers.

Second, the whole middle part of your argument is fairly ridiculous. You assert that a survey which your own source refers to as a "gold standard" and is considered to be one of the best measures we have of crime figures is wrong because 80% of reports are false. That is ridiculous. Patently ridiculous. There is no reason to believe in a widespread epidemic of people lying to anonymous BJS surveys. You will have to validate that claim in order to assert that it actually holds any statistical weight. I see no reason to entertain that notion further without any actual non-anecdotal proof.

Third, I never said you meet 600 people per year. I said that the average person knows 600 people. This number came from a paper out of Columbia which sought to answer the question of how many people does the average person know (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3666355/). It is the most robust answer I am aware of. I do not consider this to be an error in my math.

If that is the only issue you take with my math, I will consider the estimate of 34 accurate.

If thouse 2 numbers where the same all along just one over a life time the other over a year then just multiply it wont work. I dont know either how to get the real number, but I can be sure its not as high as high as 1 in 5 or even 12.  

When the hell did I clam that unreported means false? Straw man much? Dont make up things I said please. I said very clearly that the way they get the unreported figures is all based on asuption. A  survey with no investigation means nothing and Im just saying that number should not be added toghether to the actual reported cases. just gime a reprted cases number and an unreported cases number. I will be happy to use that reported number even if its a wrong cuz it will be closer to the real number. And yes, the video claims its the best source we got. It never claimed or me, that is 100% acurate. I even stated before that i dont belive is still so high but im willing to use it just to play your game.

Never claimed you math is off. Its something a kid can do. My issue is with the statistics you are using. For that 34 to be acurate, you would have to asume that ridiculous high rate of assault. 

Im not sure where I saw it, but something like 80% off sexual assault cases come from university. and that the majority of thouse cases are things that would not be consider an assault 20 years ago. Dont quote me on this cuz Im trying to remember and might be completly wrong, but seems like a certain group who claim this, so it might be concntrated in certain areas(university/big citys). SO that number squews things off. While it wont change the number total, it could change the areas as where 80% of this might happen. So if your not around or the people you know there is a chance you will not meet any of theese victims. That probably means nothing but just a crazzy thought, if what I remember is correct.