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curl-6 said:
DélioPT said:

Before Switch and the Pro/X i'd probably instantly agree with you.
But Switch is a new contender to their market. Although, not a proven direct competitor, it still is a serious threat.
Those 70%-30% might change in Switch's favour with time.

MS is betting a lot on paid subscriptions and that could pave the way for a different relationship between MS/Sony and their userbase.
Not to forget MS is trying, or will try, that monthly installment angle.

The hybrid concept is a system seller. But, for how long? Novelties like these eventually wear off.
It may be the case where when PS5/XB2 arrive it doesn't have that selling power it has now.

By the time PS5/Nextbox arrive, Switch will be significantly cheaper, have accumulated a massive library of killer games, and have a monopoly on non-mobile portable gaming, all of which should easily offset the hybrid concept no longer being new. We'll be talking about a $200 Switch vs a probably $400 PS5, so in addition to being totally different products, they'll also be serving totally different price ranges.

My guess is 200$, too.

"massive library of killer games"
Aren't you mistaking it for the PS4?? :) joking!

Personally, i highly doubt that Switch will be able to offer that many reasons to buy the system. But more important than that, is how much leftover appeal it's system sellers will have by then.
For example, while it took Mario Galaxy, 5 years to sell close to 12M copies, Odyssey sold 10M in less than a year; Twilight Princess sold 8.7M in six years, yet BOtW sold around 10M in 1 year and 7 months; Mario Kart 7 sold around 15M in pretty much 7 years, while MK8 Deluxe is near 10M in a year and a half.
This is a very atypical situation for Nintendo software - that usually pulls off these numbers throughout the lifetime of their respective consoles.

There are other incoming titles that may or not follow this pattern, so i'll refrain from saying anything more. 

We also can't forget how Nintendo has been bad at supporting their consoles at the end of their life cycle.


400$ vs 200$ is no longer the big difference it used to be.

Even if we reach the year of the introduction for PS5 and XB2 and things go your way, there are two things that aren't a certainty: what will Sony and MS offer? Will have Switch expanded it's userbase, becoming a primary console for that market, or was it just a "it was good while it lasted" situation?