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DélioPT on 05 October 2018
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psychicscubadiver said:

 

'Unlimited financial resources'?

Neither system is *that* expensive, but thank you for explaining why you made that flawed assumption. You're assuming that not only are people unable/unwilling to buy two systems, but that everyone is an early adopter. Many people wait for a console to gain a significant game library and drop in price. That's why consoles tend to peak in sales 2+ years after release. Switch will be at that point when PS5/Xbox 2 release at full price making it a great buy for those waiting for the new consoles. PS/Xbox owners who are early adopters have likely already picked up the Switch because if they are early adopters, they will have bought it early in its life cycle.

The country with the second largest video game market doesn't change things? That seems like a deliberate choice to ignore things that don't fit your opinion. If the Switch does as well as the 3DS (and it's outpacing it in a launch comparison) that 23 million in Japan alone.

Neither system is that expensive is a correct statement, but when you have two buy two in a year, plus games and whatever, then it makes less sense to think it's the 2017 PS4/BX1 buyers who rapidly adopted Switch.

"PS/Xbox owners who are early adopters have likely already picked up the Switch because if they are early adopters, they will have bought it early in its life cycle."
If by this you mean early PS4/XB1 adopters, then i agree. I do see them being the main Switch buyers.

"Switch will be at that point when PS5/Xbox 2 release at full price making it a great buy for those waiting for the new consoles."
Isn't a 300$ console with a great concept and 4 system sellers in a year a proposition like we haven't really seen?
To me, what you expect to see in 2019 is what is already happening now.

Adoption rate for PS4 and XB1 surprised even developers.
Consumers no longer need to wait for that specific situation to adopt new consoles. Actually, XB1 is having it's best year in 2018 and PS4 peaked last year.

Will Switch last 8 years or more as 3DS did? Will it get the same support? We don't know.
Last time i checked 3DS was outselling Switch in it's second year on the market.

curl-6 said:
DélioPT said:

 

When PS5/Nextbox arrive though, they'll likely still be offering a totally different value proposition to the Switch, so just as it is now with PS4/Xbone, consumers won't be choosing between one or the other, they'll get both if they're interested in both, as evidenced by that recent survey showing 70% of Switch owners in the US had a PS4/Xbone.

Switch will not be directly fighting PS5/Nextbox because they'll be totally different products that consumers will buy for totally different reasons, just like microwaves don't compete directly with refrigerators and family cars don't compete directly with racing cars.

Where do those 70% come from? Old or new adopters of PS4 and XB1?
I think the most likely scenario is old adopters given the fact that they are in 80+ million.
Which leave the 30% for "virgin" owners. And after the amazing year of 2017 with no competition in sight, isn't that a small number?

And it's because of that reason that i think that fending off PS5 and XB2 won't be as easy as people make it to be.
The fact that they are different doesn't garantee success. We don't even know what PS5 and XB2 will bring to the table or how their pricing will be. Not to mention what games will come with it.

All i'm doing is speculating. It's fine if you don't agree.