Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

[psychicscubadiver]

psychicscubadiver said:

The mistake you're making is assuming that people must choose between the Switch and other consoles. Many people buy the Switch *in addition* to another platform, whether that is PS, Xbox, or PC. There is relatively little reason to buy both a PS and Xbox because there is so much overlap between them in game libraries and system capabilities. But Nintendo appeals to the same market in a different way. Their system is portable, but easily upscales to a TV when at home and they offer high-profile games that are exclusive to their system, ie all their first-party titles. They don't have to stop people from buying another console, just convince them that the Switch is also worth owning because it is fun and unique.

Sales of the PS4, Xbox One, and any possible successors don't matter when predicting success for the Switch because Nintendo operates within their own niche instead of directly competing.

I'ts not a question of "must", it's a question of "why didn't Switch, despite all efforts, turn things in it's favor?"; "Why, for example, in the US, instead of having only 30% of it's users be newcomers, didn't it have 70% of newcomers?".
And the answer to that question is what shows if Switch's success is long term and if it will spill over to next gen.

"They don't have to stop people from buying another console, just convince them that the Switch is also worth owning because it is fun and unique."
And that's exactly what is happening: old users of PS4 and XB1 are buying it.

When you are appealing to the same userbase, it's expectable to see a success the size of Switch to make a dent on the competition. Yet, it didn't. 
Reasonable explanation: people aren't really opting for Switch, they are buying a Switch because they already own a PS4 or XB1. Which means, that, for the future, there's the high possibility that when they have to actually choose between Switch, PS5 and XB2, Switch will not be a priority - as it already isn't now.

It's hard to determine how strong are Switch's strengths when it has no direct competition.
Living off of the competitor's market and building one for yourself mean different things.

If this was the case of another Wii, then yeah, they could coexist without any real problems. But this is not the case.

'When they have to actually choose between Switch, PS5 and XB2, Switch will not be a priority'

This is what puzzles me. Why do you assume consumers must choose between them? People are already fine with buying both systems. Why do you assume that fact will change because a new gen of PS/Xbox systems?

And just to add something else to the discussion the paired buying is primarily in NA/Europe. In Japan the Switch has been dominating the PS4 in sales since the shortage was solved. It has 70% of the PS4's sales (4.9 vs 7.0 million) despite a *much* shorter life (1.5 vs 4.5 years).