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curl-6 on 02 October 2018
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DélioPT said:

curl-6 said:

I don't deny that diversifying their lineup would be nice, but I'm really not seeing the next PS/Xbox as being a significant threat to Switch, for the same reason lions aren't driving vultures or hyenas to extinction, they occupy different ecological niches.

People buy PS/Xbox to play AAA third party blockbusters, but they buy Switch primarily for the flexibility/convenience of it's "play at home and on the go" premise and for the first party exclusives. That's why, as you say, PS4/Xbone sales were not affected much by Switch's arrival, because they're not in direct competition. PS5/Nextbox will similarly not be in direct competition, because those systems will take over the same niche PS4/Xbone currently fill.

It would be more than nice! If Nintendo wants to really put their foot on that market for good they can't rely on just 1st party games or paid exclusives of that kind - even if for the sole reason that Sony and MS would easily outbid them. That's why change needs to come from within.

I do agree that Switch is different enough to make itself a more than appealing product to Sony and MS users, but we shouldn't overlook how this success came to be.
Do you really believe if there weren't 80+ million PS4 and XB1s sold when Switch came out, that it would have had this level of success?

If the data we have show that, despite 15+ million Switches out there (2017), PS4 and XB1 could still act as if it was nothing, then it's safe to assume that if they aren't choosing Switch over PS4 or XB1 now, despite all the bells and whistles, then the same would happen if they were released around the same time or, that when PS5 and XB2 arrive, there's a real risk of that market simplying opting for the new consoles.

It's really a question of priorities.

The fact their sales don't impact each other shows that they exist in separate niches that do not directly compete, and since PS5/Nextbox will almost certainly inherit the same niche as PS4/Xbone, Switch will remain unaffected. People will continue to buy PS/Xbox for the AAA blockbusters, and Switch for the flexibility the hybrid concept offers and the first party exclusives.

The only way the next PS/Xbox can significantly affect Switch is if those companies try to push Nintendo out of their niche by launching a competing hybrid, which is highly unlikely.