Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

[DélioPT]

zorg1000 said:

DélioPT said:

"How does the data show that it's not a primary console? That's a fact pulled right out of nowhere.
By the time PS5/XB4 release, Switch could potentially be in the $150-200 price range with a couple revisions and dozens of highly rated exclusives, $400-500 powerful consoles will not be direct competition, they will coexist just like Switch currently does with PS4/XBO."

If only 30% of US Switch buyers don't have a pS4/XB1 console; if sales for those systems are still the same or better, taking consideration that Nintendo sold, what, 15million in the first year, it's only natural to conclude that people don't see Switch as a priority and therefore, aren't stopping to buy a PS4/XB1 to get a Switch instead.

I doubt you'll see a console priced at 500$ anytime soon.
Even if Switch is at 200$ with dozens of exclusives (assuming they are all meaningful exclusives) why should that stop Switch from being hurt by new consoles, when at 300$, new concept and a bunch of system sellers weren't enough to have more people opt for a Switch instead of another system?

Consumers already showed that 400$ for a console is not a problem. They'll gladly pay it again if PS5 is a strong proposition as PS4 was.

What i'm saying over and over is this: despite all the efforts with Switch, Nintendo couldn't make people choose a Switch instead of a PS4 or XB1 and that's why neither consoles sales went down despite the massive sales of Switch.
Is that a good sign? No it's not. There should have been a bigger impact.

Your problem is that you constantly draw false conclusions to support your stance.

Sure, Switch didnt cause PS4/XBO sales to drop but who cares? I could turn it around and say PS4 in 2017 wasnt a primary console because despite having it's best year it couldn't stop Switch from having one of the best launch years in history. That statement would be equally silly because it draws a false conclusion with nothing to back it up.

The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old.

I know $400 wont be an issue for PS5, it will sell great at that price, that however does not mean Switch cannot also do very well at $199 around the same time.

Just like Genesis did not stop NES from selling in 1989/1990 or Saturn/PS1 stop SNES in 1995/1996 or PS2 stop PS1 in 2000/2001 or PS3/360/Wii stop PS2 in 2006/2007 or PS4/XBO stop 3DS in 2014/2015, or Switch stop PS4/XBO in 2017/2018, PS5/XB4 will not stop Switch in 2020/2021.

Who cares?
So, not causing sales to go down and causing sales to go down mean the same thing to you?

You can turn things around. You'll be ignoring pretty much everything, but ok.

"The people who buy a $400+ console at launch are typically not the same people who buy a sub-$200 device that's ~4 years old."
It's true.
But at the same time, that situation in not the same when you have a console that is dominant or a console that's living off the dominant's market.
If the shift from PS4 to PS5 is as fast as it was from PS3 to PS4, then things might not go as one would expect, specially in the case of where a console like Switch is still to exposed to that "shifting" market.

I'm not saying with this that sales will fall of a cliff or that the blow will be really hard, but it might be the case where Switch's life cycle is substantially reduced. And when you are dependant on one console (no signs of that changing) then… things might not go so swiftly for Nintendo.

In other words, if we saw - or start seeing - Switch really building it's own market (stealing customers), i would be less concerned.

curl-6 said:

DélioPT said:

 

I don't deny that diversifying their lineup would be nice, but I'm really not seeing the next PS/Xbox as being a significant threat to Switch, for the same reason lions aren't driving vultures or hyenas to extinction, they occupy different ecological niches.

People buy PS/Xbox to play AAA third party blockbusters, but they buy Switch primarily for the flexibility/convenience of it's "play at home and on the go" premise and for the first party exclusives. That's why, as you say, PS4/Xbone sales were not affected much by Switch's arrival, because they're not in direct competition. PS5/Nextbox will similarly not be in direct competition, because those systems will take over the same niche PS4/Xbone currently fill.

It would be more than nice! If Nintendo wants to really put their foot on that market for good they can't rely on just 1st party games or paid exclusives of that kind - even if for the sole reason that Sony and MS would easily outbid them. That's why change needs to come from within.

I do agree that Switch is different enough to make itself a more than appealing product to Sony and MS users, but we shouldn't overlook how this success came to be.
Do you really believe if there weren't 80+ million PS4 and XB1s sold when Switch came out, that it would have had this level of success?

If the data we have show that, despite 15+ million Switches out there (2017), PS4 and XB1 could still act as if it was nothing, then it's safe to assume that if they aren't choosing Switch over PS4 or XB1 now, despite all the bells and whistles, then the same would happen if they were released around the same time or, that when PS5 and XB2 arrive, there's a real risk of that market simplying opting for the new consoles.

It's really a question of priorities.