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The Source, selling 1 million PS3 for 500 instead of 600 dollar only costs Sony 100 million dollar, not 600 million.
I'm not really certain about your "the market for 300 dollar consoles is 20-30 million big" if you mean just for XBox 360 alone. 300 dollar is still a lot of money if you're just interested in 1 or 2 games and XBox 360 is almost not selling in Japan which means selling 10M in both the US and Europe to get there. Personally I don't see XBox 360 breaking 20M before lowering to 200 dollar.