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Amnesia said:

That Q2 won't be fantastic for the Switch.... They had to make 4M on this Q2 to keep a chance for the 20M goal.

That 20m goal is shipped, so actual sales need only be 18-19 million. They'll be at 5m total by the end of Q2, which is plenty good enough to still have a chance. Upwards of 10m in Q3 is well possible with the holidays + Pokemon n Smash, and momentum should continue into Q4 especially thanks to Mario Bros.