Can NSMBUD sell 10 million?

[zorg1000]

DélioPT said:

zorg1000 said:

Like I said, apples to oranges.

You are comparing games like Skyrim & Batman Arkham which were on PS3/360/PC so something like an install base over 200 million vs a game on a 13 million install base.

The sales potential of games like Skyrim & Batman were not limited in any significant way by the platforms they released on so it makes sense for ports of them to sell a fraction of the original release.

This is not the same for Wii U ports, those games did not sell to their full potential because they were on a failed platform and is why we are seeing basically every Wii U port on Switch sell better than the original release.

NSMBU Deluxe might not hit 10 million but I feel pretty positive that it will outsell the Wii U version.

It's true that those games weren't limited by HW sales, but that doesn't mean they couldn't at least repeat those numbers.
That didn't happen because, despite their appeal, they couldn't muster enough of it, to repeat the feat or even surpass it. And we are talking about games that had a really good word of mouth and received a lot of praise.

In regard to NSMB U, i don't really see it as being held back by HW sales.
If that was case, then why didn't it sell like MK8 or vice versa?

For example: SSB, a game that was never a match for the sales potential of the NSMB series, and, which came out in 2014, managed to almost sell as much as NSMB U. Despite the latter having two more years in the market.

I'm open to a surprise and the game outselling the original. But, is it "proven" that the game will clearly outsell the original because it was held back on Wii U? I don't see a reason to be so certain of that.

It's very rare that late ports of successful games on successful platforms match the initial release. Skyrim, Batman Arkham or almost any previous gen port/remaster (GTAV is an anomaly) were never going to sell as much on PS4/XBO as they did on PS3/360. Do you know why? Almost everybody who was interested in them already played them.

You are using a logical fallacy, just because it didnt sell as much as MK8 (best selling game on the console) does not mean it wasnt held back. Donkey Kong sold like 1/8th the amount of MK8 on Wii U and it's pretty clear it was held back considering that the Switch version outsold the Wii U version's lifetime sales in just 2 months while costing more.

Why does it matter that it released later? They both had the same ~13.5 million people to sell to. One released earlier, the other released when the install base was higher, they cancel out.

Obviously there is no way of knowing until it releases and we see the sales but it's a pretty safe bet, like I said already pretty much every Wii U port on Switch has either already outsold the original or on track to do so which gives little reason to expect a popular IP lke 2D Mario to not do the same.