I think it could hit 10 million, yes. The launch timing is really interesting - launching a game that should land in or exceed the 5-10 million range in the second week of January is an usual move. At the very least it suggests Nintendo are serious about keeping Switch's sales momentum going, given they'll be launching three potential 10m+ sellers in three consecutive months. It also suggests the 2019 line-up is strong - they can get a major Mario title out in the first two weeks of the year, because at the very least, Luigi's Mansion 3 (5m +), Animal Crossing (12m +) and Pokemon Gen 8 (15m +) could all also be launching in 2019, if things go to plan.
If we consider the gap between Odyssey (Switch's last 10m+ title) and Pokemon Let's Go! (Switch's likely next 10m+ title), then it seems clear Nintendo are serious about their 20m FY goal and have a strong line-up planned for calendar 2019.
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