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Slownenberg on 12 September 2018
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curl-6 said:
Slownenberg said:

Switch is gonna take over the industry from PS4 next year. We already see it dominating the top 10 every week this summer, despite not having a single "major" game come out yet this year. Next year instead of 4 perennial selling Switch games living in the top 10 we could have 6 games basically setting up camp in the top 10, and that is before Pokemon or whatever other big hitters they have next year. Pokemon Let's Go and Smash are gonna super charge Switch going into 2019 and if Nintendo throws out a couple new bombs for 2019 other than mainline Pokemon along with perhaps a XL version and a price cut on the OG Switch it's gonna start dominating software and hardware.

When a Toadstool puzzle game that is a port from Wii U is the 9th best selling Switch game of the week and outsells every single non-Nintendo system game except for THE major release so far of the year for PS4, well that makes what is coming pretty obvious - total Switch domination next year.

Unless 2017 was a freak outlier and 2018 is the template for what the rest of Switch's lifespan will be like; 1-2 big games per year, ancient ports and scraps for the other 10/12 months.

I don't expect 2017 again as we're probably not gonna get 4 of the absolute biggest franchises in a single year again, but 2018 is obviously an outlier for Nintendo systems.

Unless Nintendo decided to shutdown half their development teams for no reason obviously this year is an outlier. I think its pretty clear they put a lot of effort into getting those big games out for launch year and then needed a year before they could start bringing out big guns again, and so filled that with some ports and a couple second tier games. Heck we didn't even know about Smash and Let's Go until what like this Spring? We already know about Metroid and Pokemon next year, no doubt there will be other big stuff we won't know about for another 6 months. Also I think it is clear third party games will be picking up next year as studios didn't really start development until after the Switch launched. Think of all the series that have yet to come out on the Switch. Nintendo has barely scratched the surface with the game series. We can expect new version of pikmin, several pokemon, new mario 2d not just the port, maybe another zelda, animal crossing, probably another 3D mario, paper mario, fzero?, probably a new DK game of some sort, metroid, certainly another mario party later on, star fox, mario maker new or port, more mario sports like maybe strikers, yoshi, maybe a luigi game, i'm sure there's a bunch more, then there's the typical portable series that will no doubt be finding a home on the Switch.

Anyway my point was that 2018 has clearly been a very slow year for Nintendo and it is still dominating the top 10 despite PS4 have 4x userbase and dominating the third party selection. Nintendo doesn't need more 2017's to dominate, it just needs normal years between 2017 and 2018 and it's software sales will dominate even more than they do now, which will no doubt lead to hardware domination as well. And Nintendo even said they expect third parties to arrive much quicker on Switch starting next year, so the game base will start expanding much beyond Nintendo and indies and ports.

Seems pretty obvious when Nintendo is dominating the top 10 just over a year after release during a very slow year for big games on the system that next year is just gonna start getting absurd in Nintendo's favor.