It will absolutely surpass 10. You’re missing GoW, which will 100% make it, very possibly by January. Horizon ZD is all but guaranteed to make it as well; it sold 7.6mil in one year. Spider-Man I feel very confident will make it to 10mil as well. TLoUp2 will 100% make it unless it ends up bombing for some reason, but ND hasn’t had a bomb in like...well, ever.
And that’s just Sony’s exclusive games.