Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

[DonFerrari]

SpokenTruth said:

DonFerrari said:

Not sure if this was the case on Patcher, but you are right sometimes people talk about USA as being the world. But then 8M in 1 fiscal year only in USA is quite impressive and could track to 20M on the year (what are the percentages of distribution to Switch?)

The July7/8 figures show this:

US - 6.45 million
Europe - 4.97 million
Japan - 4.58 million
Global - 18.54 million

So ~35% of the total.  If he means just the US, 8 million would be on the high side of a 20 million global projection (40%) but not out of the realm of possibility.

Yep, which would make his "miss the 20M by a mile" not match this 8M in USA. But thanks for the breakdown. Wouldn't say the break is similar to PS4, but it's clear that it have reached a good distribution in all major market, and perhaps after price going down RotW will increase participation.

Sordel said:

DonFerrari said:

This source would have been good on the threads that discussed Labo being a flop or anything much below expectations.

It still didn't do big numbers, but if it's doing close to projection can't say it's a failure.

Labo hasn't had a holiday season yet and - given that it's a product that is most appropriate for an age group that can't buy its own full-priced games - that's an important factor. One of the reasons that Pachter can't really forecast is that during that Spring & Summer a different kind of gamer (for example, the sort who is all-in on Octopath Traveller) drives all the sales activity; that's no longer true in the Fall.

This is one thing that is very strange to me, if Nintendo was expecting most of the sales of Labo on holidays why release so much earlier and even using a lot of shelf space for it?

DO they think the time in display will do more marketing and drive sales on Xmas than being a new release?

jonathanalis said:
Cant be real.
He probably mispelled 18 million

I know he is fluent in BS, but do you think his english is this bad? =p

Mnementh said:

setsunatenshi said:

Of course it's said in a satirical tone, but it's to illustrate the point that the 20M target was beyond any sort of reasonable target unless you admit this Labo was something Nintendo were banking on spreading like wild fire (1). So yeah, in that sense it bombed hard. Then you look at the software Nintendo is releasing this year, so go ahead and tell me where exactly do you justify it selling better than last year? (2) Smash!? (3) A crappy pokemon remake from the gameboy era? (4) Unless they are planning some significant price cut, then I'm not seeing it. They will be forced to cut those targets, but hey that's just my guess.

Maybe the recent piracy developments will cause a surge of sales though, that can somewhat mitigate the Labo debacle.

(1) My link exactly is about Nintendos expectations of Labo

(2) Maybe based on the fact, that it is already selling better than last year (launch period excluded). I usually prefer data over make-believe.

(3) The lowest selling Smash sold 5 million.

(4) Did gamefreak drove over your cat or something? There is this hostility coming from. That's like saying the Tomb Raider reboot was a crappy remake from the Saturn era... Say what you will, it is Pokemon and it will sell.

 

So, seeing you're that certain, why not bet on it? You're saying Switch sells worse this year than last. I say different. Let's define it: calendar year 2018 (from January to December) vs. calendar year 2017 and according to VGC-numbers. Loser gifts silver tier supporter for three months to a user of winners choice. What do you say? After all you just wrote, you must be pretty certain Switch will sell less this year. So you should take this bet, sure win.

He can hate pokemon and this one could even be the very worst game ever. But considering the average release of Pokemon and how much the intended costumers of it like the game, there is 0 reason to expect the game to do bad.