DonFerrari said:
Ok so you want to consider all industry. Than again almost any game released is niche since besides some very few 10M+ sales, most are sold to less than 1% of the market. The fact that Nintendo pulled the plug in few months makes no difference, they shipped 700k and that is it, we can count 8 months or 20 years of sale it won't make Virtua Boy cross 1M. You were the one who brought it the table so no complaining now. I believe you made the 0.0001% based on revenue because if not you have about let's say 30M compatible PCs for VR and 80M PS4, so that makes 110M base with like 5M devices, still more than 0.0001% (if not please show what you meant with it). So if it's based on value then screws are a very very very low representation on the value of cars sold, so niche using your terms. Unless you want to change again the meaning of niche. -- Your predictions about the 3 were already brought in this thread and you tried to dodge them. But since you accept their analysis is better than yours, until any analyst or representative of Oculus, Vive or Sony comes out saying their product was a failure or they stop supporting this or future versions of the product then you already accept defeat on it growing until being a representative chunck of market. -- Necessity is a personal thing. Considering people are paying 80x over the price of a simple call phone and that the usage of cellphone for internet, texting and other voip like services is higher than direct call I would say they are all more necessary than the make call part. My cell phone can't receive or make calls for over 1 year and it didn't really bothered me much. So yes, people are paying 800 USD thinking of it as a need more than a hobby. Please explain to us how I'm not understanding your definition of niche that you change for each argument. -- On the Oculus GO you also forgot price and probably marketing. Never seem anything about it. And on Blackberry my pessimism comes from it being a go backward instead of evolution. People used and liked their normal phones, got interested in qwerty and then touchscreen smartphone. Very very hardly they would go backward on it. If you said anything about implanted chip or any other technology that isn't a go back to the past I could say perhaps it will be successful. Your false parallel with the negativity is totally as said, false. -- Nintendo didn't sustain it because they moved the focus on WiiU to the gamepad instead of the motion and that is what killed it. But as you put there were still motion control in WiiU, 3DS and PS4 so hardly saying it died out right? But considering none of these made motion the main focus on these consoles you can't say they really tried sustain it. The professional analysts from Nintendo put the reason for the failure of WiiU on what them? Since you want to bring they to this analysis instead of consensus on the community. -- I have no problem accepting they missed their projection (Sony didn't though), but still I'm willing to accept their projection had a better reasoning than your takes on why VR is going to fail. I would love to see your projections on PSVR one year before release. Or the whole VR market before this gen. So we can validate your credentials on this comfortable hindsight saying you are right and if PSVR keep consistent sales and have a PSVR2 launch you just vanish and forget. -- If at the time having batteries to be used as portable, not needing TV (being self contained) wasn't put on the Handheld market, at what market were it put over 20 years ago?
You should mean why Virtua Boy isn't a VR, not even a poor one. It is more like a poor 3D attempt. More proof that it took much more than 10 years since a decent smartphone was done to it being market ready. |
I mean it's not that I want to consider all of the industry, I want to consider all of the video game industry which has VR solutions. That's Playstation, PC and Mobile realistically. If you want to call say "God of War" niche because it "only sold 8 million" copies only on Playstation, then you're just distorting what niche means to fit your narrative. I'm sticking to where VR has a presence.
i know the fact that the virtual boy had the plugged pulled on it makes no difference to you. Why should I care if it doesn't to you?
I put. 0.0001% as a small number. I have no idea how small it actually is, all I know is that it's not exactly a big presence, it's never been a big presence, and based on its slow growth, no reason to expect it will be a big presence long-term. And 30 million compatible PCs for VR? Considering at least 30 million discrete GPUs are sold per quarter, I doubt that's correct, and I'm not even counting laptops with integrated cards that are capable of running VR now.
https://wccftech.com/nvidia-amd-discrete-gpu-market-share-report-q3-2017/
There's more than likely over 200 million VR capable PCs in people's homes right now, and that's probably pretty conservative.
Ahh so you don't actually know what my predictions were? You're taking someone's word about it who clearly only vaguely remembered the conversation by their own admittance. I clarified my points. But hey, it that's good enough for you, I don't see why i should care about how low you're willing to let your standards go.
the fact that people considered a smart phone to be a "need" doesn't mean it actually is. it's very clearly a luxury item, like VR headsets.
the Oculus Go: https://www.oculus.com/go/ Self contained VR headset, smaller, lighter, decent quality, $199.
As for Blackberry, Did the PS4 go backwards when they announced the PS4 would ship with the Dualshock 4 instead of Move controllers? How about when MS discontinued Kinect? I don't think many would argue that they did. Sometimes you just need to go back to what works best, which is what Blackberry feels they're trying to do. Such negativity from you!
Nintendo/MS/Sony didn't "try to sustain motion controls" with their consoles because their customers didn't want motion controls. They don't miss motion controls. They don't want to toss their controllers aside to use motion controls. Motion controls are no longer a thing because these companies listened to their audience. The motion control fad came and went. Those niche few that still want it can still have it, but for the rest of us, we get to go back to gaming the way we see fit, with a controller/keyboard/mouse. As it turns out, you can't force people to play games in ways they don't want to. See: X1 Kinect, Wii U. Lessons learned.
What did Nintendo's analysts say about why the Wii U failed, I'm not sure, but the end result is the Switch, which again doesn't have motion controls as a primary input, so it looks like they didn't consider that to be a reason the Wii U failed either.
Sony met their projections with the PSVR? They haven't said that since a few months after PSVR released. Since they all they've had to say was that they were "pleased" with how PSVR was selling, not that it was meeting projections.
As for me, I didn't give projections for PSVR for release and I don't care if you think I need credentials to talk about VR sales. Just pretend my credentials are whatever would give me the most credibility in your eyes. This is anonymous message board, so what I have or haven't done or what I know or don't know or what I've learned or not learned doesn't mean shit. the only thing that matters is the ideas I or anyone else expresses. I've said since the beginning that VR has only ever and will only ever cater to a niche market. Until a VR headset starts selling like gangbusters, gets a pile of legit RE VII-like support, and sustains that momentum over multiple product revisions, the VR industry will not have proven otherwise.
One more time, you really, really want to update your criteria. for what constitutes an handheld. I'm doing you a favor for the future. Think harder about it.
And it appears you never understood my point about the whole smartphone crteria - A VR headset doesn't have to have all, or even most of the features of a modern VR headset to be considered a VR headset.
