Nintendo is committing a lot of the same lethal mistakes they did with the WiiU, and more.

[The_Liquid_Laser]

JSG87 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Here is a more complete version of my logic, which I put a few posts ago.

 

So what does that make xbox? If it's a console that sells less than switch?

Microsoft home consoles always perform their best in NA, so-so in Europe and terrible in Japan.  The XB1 is behaving just like the other two Microsoft consoles in that respect.  The only thing that differs is how well they do against Sony each generation.

Nautilus said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This is my hypothesis.  It is taking into account 1) total Switch sales curve vs. total 3DS sales curve, and 2) more importantly Switch sales in Japan vs. 3DS sales in Japan.  Switch is selling like a more popular version of the 3DS.

Switch is definitely selling like a handheld in Japan.  That should be clear by how much it outpaces PS4 (and every other platform) in the sales charts every week.  Only handheld platforms sell like that in Japan.  But if you look at how Switch sells in the rest of the world, NA has PS4 and Switch close to the same each week, and Europe has Switch selling decent but PS4 is ahead by a good margin each week.  That is also how handhelds sell.  In NA Nintendo handhelds usually sell about the same as the leading home console (sometimes more, sometimes less), while in Europe the leading home console tends to sell more. 

In every region Switch is selling like a handheld platform.

I personally think this is a bad way to see things.

First of all, I do agree that the Switch protable side of things is one of the most appealing things in Japan.But its not like its "selling like a handheld" or that its being viewed exclusively as a handheld there.Its more like its the main feature that makes people want it there, but its still being seeing as a versatile device, that can adjust to your play style.Given how evenly split are the way people use the Switch to play games(I think its about 50-50 split betwenn docked and undocked mode) saying that its purely seen as a handheld there its a bit of an overexageration.I think its more correct to say that Nintendo adapt to the market it is selling, but without appealing only to its tastes and instead adding a new flavour that may win(and may have won) new fans.

But the rest of your arguments fall flat in my view."NA has PS4 and Switch close to the same each week, and Europe has Switch selling decent but PS4 is ahead by a good margin each week.  That is also how handhelds sell." ....Why?So good sales from Nintendo consoles cant come from a Nintendo home console because they were never good?While this might tecnically be true, since Nintendo did lost its way with the 64, Gamecube and Wii U, you are ignoring two essential points in your argument:

The first would be the home consoles that DID succeed and achieve success everywhere.Those are the NES, Super Nintendo and the Wii.You might say that the NEs and Super Nintendo are old consoles and come pre-PS, which would be bs, because Nintendo competed with Sega, and Sega was a powerful rival back in its peak.For the Wii, you might say that it was a "lightning in a bottle", which would be bs again, because people claimed the same thing for the Switch(due to lack of power, lack of third parties, Nintendo labeling it as a home console not a hybrid.You know, the usual suspects), and we all know how that turned out.The fact is that, much like the DS, the Wii was a cleverly created and marketed product, with great titles(at the very least early in its lifecycle) that won people over.Much like the Switch is doing now.And all those consoles sold not because they were handhelds, but because they were good and compelling products.

The second reason would be that the Switch seems to be kind of a rebirth for Nintendo.In everything.Nintendo marketing drastically changed, Nintendo approach to games drastically changed.Nintendo courting third parties in general drastically improved.They are changing on a core level.And you can see those results.Hardware sales are breaking records, software sales are breaking franchise and records in general.The Switch has the best selling Zelda.The best selling Mario.The best selling Xenoblade.The best selling Mario tennis.The best selling Kirby(or second best selling).And the list goes on.And most importantly, thats something not exclusive to first party titles.What I mean by this, is that the Switch is changing how the industry sees Nintendo, and how Nintendo is being seen by the market.Predicting stuff about it based solely on past data will be lead to wrong conclusions.

Home consoles have not sold well in Japan for some time now.  The PS2 was the last one that sold decently.  Ever since then the Japanese have bought handheld consoles in much greater quantities than home consoles.