Does he still have pretty horrible approval numbers? If so, it sounds like it would require an extraordinarily good campaign. Of course anything is possible, but sounds like a pretty tough job to me. Then again, I had absolutely no expectation of him winning even the first time until fairly close to the election day. Like many others, I took his candidacy as a joke for a good while - and I still wouldn't be surprised if it was just a publicity stunt until he got elected.