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I think 10 mil. for Oct - Dec is doable but tough. Roughly 2 mil. were sold from Mar - Jun. This means they have to sell roughly 4 mil. from Jul - Sep and another 4 from Jan - March. Jul - Sep will definitely be weaker, so they probably will only make about 2.5 mil. That means they have to sell roughly 5.5 mil. from Jan - Mar which is tough but possible as SMBU will come out in Dec, it means it will do great numbers in Jan too and at the same time still will be a system-seller in Jan and beyond. (The 120'000 missing from Q1 to match 2 mil. will be sold anywhere between).

So, yes 20 mil. is still possible but tough (Nintendo never said it will be easy).