According to Nintendo, we're at 1.5 million. They also announced another kit (something I was counting on), and I wouldn't be surprised if another kit was released for the holidays.
The data is as of June 30th, so we have six months to go. I think that the kits combined could sell 1-2 million more by the holidays (mostly with the launch of vehicle kit), and sales should really jump at the holidays.
I'm still feeling confident with this prediction.