| StuOhQ said: Great 15 month numbers, but not the best quarter. I'm still not sold on 20 million this year. We still have 18.12 left to go and the year is 1/4 spoken for. Even if it averages 3x as many units for every additional quarter all year they still fall short. Pokemon and Smash are big games, but Q4 is usually just as slow as Q1. Is Nintendo seriously implying they are going to sell well over 10 million consoles in Q3? |
The fact they're sticking to the 20 million target and the fact they've got Labo #3, Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash Bros coming in September to December suggests to me that, yes, Nintendo are aiming for a 10 million + third quarter followed by a strong fourth quarter. They had a strong fourth quarter in their last financial year, just under ~3 million units. If Switch receives a big enough boost to its momentum it could have a 3 million + Q4 this financial year. Still, that's only 13 million of the 18 million they need, and the next quarter certainly isn't going to make up the short-fall.
Really Nintendo need 11 million in Q3 and 4 million in Q4 to stand a chance of hitting their target, with 3 million in the next quarter - and I don't see where a boost of that magnitude would come from across July to September. In all probability we're looking at another ~2 million quarter. It's entirely possible they'll revise the target down when they report their next set of results.
