I don't think 1.88M shipped necessarily means they won't hit 20M for the fiscal year. They could have overshipped Q4 given the demand dropped with no major software that quarter. Although compared to the Wii on the ascent:
In 2008 QA sales were 3.43 and sales hit 18.61M
In 2009 Q1 sales were 5.17 and sales hit 25.95M (actually, still the #1 best fiscal year of any console in history)
In 2010 Q1 sales were 2.23 and sales hit 20.53M
So typically Nintendo home consoles sell 10.5 to 18.5% their annual shipment in Q1 in the early period. The number is higher if they undership in Q3 - as happened to the Wii in 08/09. So the Switch is probably going to be closer to something like 2010 numbers given Nintendo has the capacity to hit shipment goals this year. If they're in line with the Wii, they'll hit about 17-18M for the fiscal year - if they overshipped in Q4 last year, then they can potentially hit 20M - but it will be a unique situation.
Wii U trends:
2014: Q1 was 160K, 2.72M for the year. ~6%
2015: Q1 was 510K, 3.38M for the year 15%
2016: Q! was 470K, 3.26M for the year 14.5%
So hitting 20M for the year wouldn't be unprecedented results.
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