BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

[Bofferbrauer2]

Jumpin said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. I still hold that Mario Kart: Double Dash is the best one in the series, though MK8DX is coming very close. MK Wii was a deception for me, with the only somewhat good new thing being bikes (somewhat because they are gamebreakers)

2. Smash managed to get over 5M on Wii U. Believe me when I say that it would have outsold Brawl given enough install base (even just GC hardware numbers would have sufficed imo)

3. Possibly, but it gained a substantial amount of online multiplayer fanbase since then

Going by the preorders on both Amazon (worldwide) and Gamestop (US only), which are still going very strong one month after the E3 presentation, I don't think many will opt for a "buy later" for this game. In fact, I think it could be comparatively frontloaded for a Nintendo game,as many seem to have been waiting for this game.

1. I don't see how you making this point at all advances the argument? Your perception of the game doesn't line up with its lack of acceptance when compared to the previous and later iterations. People were turned off by it; and the problems were bleeding obvious. First with how terrible the local multiplayer experience was - particularly in regards to how terrible the controls were; arguably in the franchise. Another downside was how horribly unbalanced the weapons and karters were (some were outright worthless, notably the heavies). It probably ties with Super Circuit as having the worst and least memorable track lineup of the entire franchise. On top of that, they slapped on a really silly 2-karter gimmick that some people tried to defend, but most people thought was stupid, and were repulsed by it. This is why Mario Kart 64 remained popular until the Wii days and the cube version was quickly forgotten. The fact of the matter is most people saw the cube Mario Kart as a stop gap, while the Wii version was the real deal.

2. So... I'm to just "believe" you. That's your argument?  I have to clap for such arrogant pretense.

3. Local multiplayer is one of Nintendo's best tools at spreading game popularity as it gives loads of non-owners the opportunity to play; online multiplayer is not. Online multiplayer basically the same as single player as in the people playing that mode have already purchased it. So regardless of the "massive growth" in this area, that's a massive growth out of existing players.

What you have to do is try to explain how Smash 5 is going to hit 25 million or higher using facts (not beliefs or convictions) as evidence to support your arguments.

What you've given me is fanboy apologetics attempting to explain away Nintendo's misses, an argument whose conclusion doesn't follow the premise, and a plea for me to just believe in what you believe.
Usually we discuss religious topics in the Politics forum.

1. Just pointed out that the GC Mario Kart wasn't just a stopgap (and how could it be, it was still the second-best selling game on the cube ffs) and I can't agree on the track selection at all. In fact, I still hold that the tracks are a huge step up from MK64, and probably will never understand why that one is so popular despite the bland tracks and items. I do agree on the weapons being very unbalanced in Double Dash though.

But yeah, that's not smash we're supposed to talk about, so I'd suggest we leave it at that.

2. Is that what you take from that? Smash Wii U has a near 50% attach rate, it would have sold much better with a higher install base. Smash hasn't peaked with Brawl, Smash Wii U just did have the massive drawback of launching on the dreaded Wii U. But apparently I'm just talking about divine interventions here, belief, etc... when I say that the fact it released on the Wii U was what resulted in less sales than Brawl

3. Even if the local multiplayer didn't grow much like you said in your original post, the online multiplayers more than make up for it. Just look how many are playing MK online nowadays. Or, you know, Splatoon? And the best is you can mix and match (Wii U Smash could, and I doubt they're gonna cut that feature), like having 2 players at your place and fighting against each other and 6 other players online. Massive growth out of existing players sure, but players of what exactly? Wii U? 3DS? Brawl? Melee? You seem to only count the Wii U and maybe 3DS players instead of all of them, especially the competitive Melee players who left out Brawl.

@Bolded: What you're giving me there is just glossing over the facts I delivered to support my argument(Like how well the preorders are still doing a month and a half after E3) and then telling me I didn't, you seem to have missed how well it's doing on COMG! (not just very largely outpacing Smash Wii U/3DS combined, but also Pokémon! And that's despite the fact that COMG has become very Playstation-heavy and closed some shops in between) and how well general response to the game is and making excuses as to why it won't sell in your opinion. "Wii U Smash didn't outsell Brawl? Oh my, smash is doomed, it peaked with Brawl, Switch Smash can't outsell that", that's your reaction, even if you're not seeing it yourself. And you seem to have set your mind on that, considering you didn't look at the facts and then accused me on not delivering any.

Oh, and for your last sentence, I count that as a personal insult