PS4/XBO/NS - 2017 vs. 2018: Final Results!!!

[PAOerfulone]

My apologies on this update taking so long to post, I was in San Diego all weekend and couldn't get to a computer with enough time to post it. Now that I have returned home, I am now getting to it.

We're at the halfway mark now, folks! Week 26 out of 52!!!
So far, the Xbox One and Nintendo Switch are up YoY, while the PS4 is down.

I decided to do some calculations and found the percentages of what all three systems were at this point last year, compared to what they finished the year with.
For PS4, by week 26, it had sold through ~39% of what its 2017 totals were.
For Xbox One, it had sold through ~27% of its 2017 totals.
For Nintendo Switch, ~32%.

If those same exact percentages were to hold for this year, this would be the 2018 totals for all three systems:
PS4: 17,949,895
XBO: 8,933,393
NS: 16,273,149

Now, this is just a rough hypothesis. A ballpark estimate if you will. Out of the three, I believe the Nintendo Switch's estimate is likely to be the most accurate since we know, more or less, what Nintendo's lineup is for the rest of the year and they usually don't do anything special, in terms of deals, bundles, or price cuts, for the holiday season.
On the other hand, the PS4 and Xbox One will be trickier to predict. The PS4 should continue to fall further behind 2017, especially in the coming weeks with Dragon Quest XI's launch doing huge numbers in Japan. It will basically keep going down until the week when Spider-Man launches, where 2018 should win that week, afterwards, there's FIFA 19, Battlefield V, Black Ops IIII, RDR2, all of which should have some big effects in October. The real question mark will be what Sony has planned for November and December. Will they do another big deal similar to the $199 Black Friday PS4 deal they did last year, as well as the $349 PS4 Pro and $249 Star Wars bundle during December? That would be a big factor for how much it sells for the rest of the year.

The Xbox One should continue on soaring up through the atmosphere (Mary Poppins reference, anyone?) until.... the launch of the Xbox One X. The biggest reason... really the only reason why the Xbox One has the lowest percentage of the three listed is because of the X model. Once that system's launch week kicks in, all hell will break loose and we will have to see what will Microsoft's plans be to hold off that launch and remain up YoY.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 17 July 2018