| Shadow1980 said: Improbable. The PS4-Switch gap has been growing all year:
As of May, the PS4 has a lead of 324k. With the Switch about flat YoY and the PS4 showing no signs of a sudden crash in sales, that gap is going to continue growing. By the end of October the PS4 could have a YTD lead of 600k or more. Going in to November, Sony will almost certainly issue the usual big Black Friday price drops. The PS4 will sell well north of a million units, maybe 1.4M or more; last year it sold 1.58M, the third-biggest sales performance for any console in November. Meanwhile, the Switch sold something like 770k, give or take (I don't think we ever got an exact number). To even have a chance of beating the PS4 in November by enough to make up the deficit it will almost certainly accrue by October, Pokemon Let's Go is going to have to be a huge system-seller, and Nintendo is going to have to issue the same kind of big temporary BF price cuts that Sony & MS have been issuing this generation. But even if the Switch is up by as much at 50% YoY, it won't be enough to close the YTD gap. It will need to double its Nov. 2017 sales to have a chance of closing the deficit. Personally, I see the YTD sales gap growing to as much as 800k-1M units by the end of the November sales period. That would leave December. Nintendo systems tend to do well in December, with the Switch selling about 1.5M last December. It is entirely possible that, like last year, Sony may neglect to issue any price cuts ahead of Christmas. If Smash causes significant YoY sales growth (say, +20%) and the PS4 is at most flat YoY, then the gap could potentially narrow by as much as 800k, which could potentially give the Switch a very narrow win. Ultimately, it's going to come down to what the pricing situation is for Black Friday & Christmas and what effect Pokemon and Smash have on Switch sales. I think it's a long shot for the Switch this year, and I give it maybe a one-in-four chance of becoming the #1 console in the U.S. for 2018. |
Can you pls make graph or at least gave numbers for NPD Switch sales YoY?
NPD with this prediction acuatly counts on very strong October-December quarter for Switch (espacily November-December) period that will erase PS4 lead leading in that period.
Also it's interesting you talk only about possibilitys and potential for PS4 but not for Switch. Pokemon Go can easily be much stronger system seller game than Odyssey last year was, also Switch didn't had any price cut or deal last BF while its expected that this year they will have at least some kind of bundles for current price point, so it wouldnt be strange if this November Switch sales around 1.5m (definitely more than 1m). Also this December with Smash Bros will have much stronger month with sales, last year Switch sold 1.5m with Xenoblade this year we probably talk about around 2m+ this December.
Talking about PS4 sales, GoW had very strong effect on PS4 April-May sales (no one expected PS4 will have so much huge boost in sales because of GoW), in June, July and August months difrence in sales probably want be so big.
