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MasterThief said:

I think they will ship 18 million. unless they pricecut 

but maybe I am underestimating pokemon. I feel like most smash bros fans already own a switch

Why do you feel that? The current Switch installbase is probably only just above what Smash Ultimate will sell ltd. It'd make more sense to say 3D Mario and Zelda fans already have a Switch as those series exist on the system, but even that is clearly not true as the games are still selling.