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LethalP on 25 May 2018
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RolStoppable said:
LethalP said:

There's no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. The Switch won't have anywhere close the same attach rates as the Xbox, which has the best attach rates of any consoles other than PlayStation. Handhelds don't in general. Look at the Gameboy at 118 million hardware units, it sold 501 million software. The NES also sold 501 million software, but inside 61 million hardware units. It had nearly double the attach rate.

The Xbox will sell 500 million physical units in the end probably. The ps4 will do about 1.2-1.4 billion. Switch about 450 million. (if it sells above 90 million which is likely). 

Switch isn't a handheld and its tie ratio isn't developing like a handheld console either.

Switch hardware and software shipments by March 2018: 17.79m and 68.97m for a tie ratio of 3.88.
3DS hardware and software shipments by March 2012: 17.13m and 45.42m for a tie ratio of 2.65.

The above timeframe gives both systems roughly 13 months of availability. Tie ratios of all consoles start out low and grow over time. The 3DS will finish with a tie ratio of ~5.0, but Switch is already considerably pacing ahead of the 3DS because its hybrid nature means that it will be used like a home console by plenty of its owners, especially in America and Europe. As such, it's only logical that its software purchase patterns will closely align with the pace of a home console, so an estimated final hardware total of 90m (your example) results more realistically in a software total of 750m+, because you should expect a tie ratio of 8.0 or higher.

The Switch is a handheld, simple as that. It's built in TV out dock doesn't change that. But more importantly to the topic is that It's selling to the handheld demographic. Not the home console one. The Switch sells independently to the PS4 and X1, where as PS and Xbox substitute eachothers sales. One does better at the others expense. What matters is the market and ever since Nintendo has been doing it's own thing after the Gamecube, it's attach rates have been consistently lower and we all know why, it's lack of third party support.

The Switch being able to be a ''home console'' doesn't magically mean it will sell software like one (even if it actually was one). The Wii sold less software than the PS3 and 360. Though it did manage to have relatively strong attach rates but guess why? Because more than a quarter of it's software sales was bundled games. Switch isn't going that route.

The Switch doesn't have the steady stream of big releases to take it's software sales anywhere close to an 8.00 tie ratio, you're full of shit to think that lol. Even if we assume the Switch gets multiple 20 million sellers, that didn't take the DS past a 6.00 tie ratio and doesn't make up for the dozens and dozens of big sellers PS4 and Xbox One gets. All you have to do is look at how many 1+ million sellers a console has. Switch has 8 in 13 months. That seems a lot like a Nintendo handheld to me. The extra sales of the Switch over the 3DS in the same time could easily be explained away by the release of multiple major selling titles in it's first year, where as the 3DS was comparatively dry in that period. Switch might sell more software than the Xbox One, but even then only at retail. But it won't be a blowout.