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LethalP on 25 May 2018
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ninson95 said:
LethalP said:

There's no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. The Switch won't have anywhere close the same attach rates as the Xbox, which has the best attach rates of any consoles other than PlayStation. Handhelds don't in general. Look at the Gameboy at 118 million hardware units, it sold 501 million software. The NES also sold 501 million software, but inside 61 million hardware units. It had nearly double the attach rate.

The Xbox will sell 500 million physical units in the end probably. The ps4 will do about 1.2-1.4 billion. Switch about 450 million. (if it sells above 90 million which is likely). 

I might be close at the end and we are maybe a bit too early in Switch's lifespan to tell, but considering the fact that the Switch is already outselling the xbox one in terms of software sales for this year up until now,  I still think switch will win at the end. I mean the switch had no big exclusive nor a strong/any third party support this year and still is selling more software in its 2nd year on the market. Imagine what games are about to come … few Pokemon editions, Animal Crossing, probably a 2D Mario and Smash bros  and presumably many more- all of those games will easily sell 10 million copies on the switch whereas it is doubtful that a single xbox one game could crack 10 millions after all (at retail of course!)

The one thing the Switch has going for it that other handhelds didn't is the fact it gets every Nintendo exclusive including the traditionally home console ones. So you can add sales for 3D Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Smash, and other home console franchises on top of Pokemon, Animal Crossing etc. So it might have a better attach rate than the 3DS, but it's not going to be close to what Xbox One will settle at, which will probably similar to 360 and OG Xbox, maybe slightly less.

The DS had multiple 20+ million selling games yet didn't manage to sell as many software units as the PS3 or 360. The Xbox One may not get a 10+ million seller this gen at retail, but it has more games that sell 1 million+ and that's what makes up the difference.

Here's what I expect for both:

Xbox One

Hardware sales: 55 - 60 million

Tie-ratio: 9 - 10.00

Sofware sales: 495 - 600 million


Nintendo Switch

Hardware sales: 90 - 100 million

Tie-ratio: 4.50 - 6.00

Sofware sales: 405 - 600 million


I wouldn't say it's that cut and dry.