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thismeintiel on 24 May 2018
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, it made ~$30M WW for this just this past Mon and Tue.  It's definitely slowing down at the DBO, but it should still make it to ~$650M.  It's still doing great at the FBO, though, as ~$24.4M of that $30M is outside the DBO.  If the FBO holds at ~67.3%, the final WW numbers would be ~$1.99B.  However, it's obvious that the FBO is probably going to make up more like 70% if the trend continues, which would put WW numbers at ~$2.17B.

It's definitely going to be around $2B regardless of whether it is a little above or a little below.  I saw somewhere that it had a huge first week in China, but it had a huge drop off after that.  In general Infinity War is taking in huge record breaking numbers everywhere, but ticket sales also seem front loaded.  Infinity War will definitely not have the legs that Black Panther had.

Well, it launched in China on the 11th.  In it's first weekend, it made $191M.  The most recent numbers we have for China is up to the 20th, at which point it has made $301.4M.  So, that's $110.4M in just 7 days after release.  That hardly seems to be extremely frontloaded.  Not anymore than any other film, anyway.  For comparison's sake, BP launched in China with $63.1M and ended at $105.1M, meaning it made 60% of its total in the opening weekend.  Avengers, so far, is at 63.4% with just 7 days after opening weekend accounted for.  So, in China, IW will have better legs than BP did.

In fact, if you look at the big picture, in the end IW is going to have equal or better legs than BP at the FBO.  BP opened with $169.4M and has ended at $646M.  That's 26.2% of its total take in the opening weekend, or a multiplier of 3.8x.  And after this weekend, IW will most likely sitting at $1.3B at the FBO, which makes it 29.4%, or a mulitiplier of 3.4x.  And that's just after 5 weeks. This movie is probably going to go onto make ~$1.4B-$1.5B at the FBO

Sure, legs in the US aren't as good, but IW has much stronger competition than BP did.  The FBO is also helping make up for that.  And IW still has a couple more weeks to go before it completely falls off a cliff.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 24 May 2018