Kyuu said:
thismeintiel said:
Last gen only lasted so long because MS and Sony wanted to recoup a lot of the money they lost earlier in the gen. This gen has played out exactly like the PS1 and PS2 Era. Sony massively in the lead, with great sales. In fact, the PS1 and PS2 had better sales, 21M and 20M respectively, the years before they launched their successors. Sony wants to stay on top with momentum continuing in their favor. Not risk losing it, or losing sales to a competitor who launches earlier, because they wanted to wait for sales to really take a dive. Just to appease some armchair analysts who aren't ready for next gen?Guess what, just like any gen, you don't have to jump in right away.
To me, it's very telling with all the rumors we have been getting recently, PS4 sales starting to decline slightly, and now Sony specifically mentioning HW. I'm sticking with my prediction of a late 2019 launch most likely, with a slight possibility of them holding off til 2020. But, that will be the absolute latest. Those people thinking they may wait til 2021 or 2022 are just insane.
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2019 launch isn't happening. You really expect PS5 to launch on the same year Days Gone, Ghost of Tsushima, FF7 remake, Death Stranding, and The Last of Us 2 are released? (Assuming they don't get pushed/released to/in 2020 (and half of them will), which would make the argument for a 2019 launch even weaker). No way is Sony doing that. They've learned a good lesson with GT6.
Microsoft will do their own thing from here on out and The Switch 2 isn't launching anytime before 2022 at the earliest. Even if MS decides to stick to the concept of generations and launch the Xbox 4 in 2019 (instead of making another X1X-esque upgrade) Sony can release the PS5 a year later and risk nothing. They'd just have to make it more powerful to justify the late launch, and back it up with a better lineup which is a piece of cake given the disparity between their first party offerings, and of course "exclusives" a word that is no longer existent in Microsoft's textbooks. Sony's in a far safer position than you seem to think they are. Microsoft no longer cares all that much about the console business.
I'm one of the "insane" folks who expect a 2021 launch. 2020 is also a strong possibility but 2019 is virtually out of the question. There is still a huge space for effective price drops, and technology hasn't yet evolved to the point where console gamer would appreciate a generational jump at an affordable price.
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This. Sony has no reason to change things right now so i agree that 2021 is the the most likely release date. I expect that they will be waiting for MS to make the next move.
Of course MS have an incentive to release a new console (considering their lower numbers) but have only recently released the Xbox X and wont be wanting to release their next gen one too soon.
