IkePoR said:
pitzy272 said:
You continue to sound ridiculous. You’ve had at least 3 people tell you how wrong you are and cite actual reasonable ways to provide a sales expectation for GoW, and yet you continue to base your prediction solely off the sales of the previous GoW games. As I said to you in the other thread: Comparing the new GoW to the prior GoW games for sales is entirely nonsensical. 1. This is on the ps4 where, for various reasons, software consistently sells very well—MUCH better than on the ps3 (E.G. Uncharted 4 will end up around 13mil LT sales; highest selling Uncharted game on ps3 is around 7-8mil). 2. This new GoW is MARKEDLY different from the prior games: It modernized its gameplay; got rid of the tasteless, excessive violence (as well as nudity); and delivered a high quality narrative with great characters (including Kratos—finally) and acting.
It’s not just Horizon that we can look at to get an idea for GoW’s sales, as I said above:
Uncharted 4: 2.7 mil in 1 wk, 8.7 mil in 8mo (Jan 2017), likely around 10-11 mil now. Likely 12-14 mil lifetime.
HZD: 2.6 mil in 2 wk, 7.6 mil in 1 year. Likely around 11 mil lifetime.
GoW: 3.1 mil in 3 days. And ontop of better initial sales than U4 and HZD, the legs are looking fantastic so far in the UK and Japan: 35% second week drop in each country, which is almost unheard of for a big, highly anticipated game. And for the UK, 35% drop for GoW compares to a 78% drop for U4 and 60% drop for HZD.
Your argument that GoW will have lifetime sales of 7-8 mil bc “its sales might drop off” is completely baseless to begin with. But the evidence we have thus far says the exact opposite. All signs point to good legs ontop of GoW’s unprecedented initial sales.
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Which is fine and dandy. Congrats to those numbers. That you have NOW.
I'll ask one question and I'll be finished. Are you seriously going to sit here and say with your own words that the history of a franchise is a less reliable citation than "other games sell on this system"?
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As of right now, yes it is. Sony’s franchises have for the most part been performing extremely well this gen. Better than they usually do. As pitzy stated, games like UC4 and Horizon saw somewhat sharp drop offs post launch, but still went on to do extremely well. GoW topping both is a fairly decent indicator that even if it sees a sharp drop off, it will also do well. Even if the franchise has a history of numbers nosediving, none of them have ever even come close to these launch numbers before, so it’s incredibly unlikely that this game will somehow fall flat before it can pass GoW3 (kindof a moot point, since there’s no way it already hasn’t).
Point is, people are arguing with you because your intent is to downplay what should be considered fantastic numbers. I don’t think any non-Nintendo exclusive has done this many in such a short period of time since Halo 3.
