How many units do you think SWITCH will sell in 2018 (sold through)?

[zorg1000]

CrazyGamer2017 said:

zorg1000 said:

Would you mind going into detail why you think sales will be so low?

They are forcasting to ship 20 million from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019. Sure, its possible that they miss their forcast but by ~8 million? I doubt thats happening.

First if they sell 12 million Switches in their second year it's not what I would call "low sales".

And to answer your question, they sold 15 million units their first year because there was Zelda BOTW that pushed the sales, I mean the vast majority of people who bought a Switch the first year did so for Zelda, the attach rate was super high, very few Switches sold with no intention of playing Zelda. Then Mario Odyssey came along and gave a push too.

But the second year you will not have such names to push sales. There certainly will be new Zelda and Mario games but not this year obviously.

Of course you can say there are other games expected this year but I don't think they will have the same impact as the first party mega names like the two I talked about. Last year nobody had a Switch so if you wanted to play Zelda you had to buy one. This year 15 million people already have a Switch so the big titles of this year will be shared between people who already own a Switch and those who don't and that means the impact on sales should not be the same as last year.

Now the Switch could very well end up selling much more than I predict but that would mean there are masses of new comers that would care to get a Switch for games that are not the big ones from Nintendo. Of course I don't know the exact schedule of releases from Nintendo so there may be big games I am not thinking of. I think I heard that there was a big Pokemon game coming and that game could seriously push sales but other than that one which big names would?  So the rest would be up to third party games or if more and more games of all genres come to the Switch, the variety could push sales up too I suppose.

The bottom line is I'm simply making a prediction without any certainty, it's just my humble opinion and I admit I don't have all the info to make a scientific prediction. Let's just say if the Switch sells 12 millions units this year, It will be a very decent figure, if it sells significantly more then I'll be officially impressed

I mean low in relation to their forcasts. 12m in itself isnt low but it is when they want it to do 20m.

Youre right that games like Zelda & Mario pushed a significant amount of consoles last year but considering that those games along with Mario Kart & Splatoon are consistently selling in the top 10/20 in US, Canada, Japan, UK, France, Germany & Spain on a weekly/monthly basis shows that these games are still moving hardware.

We have also seen very stable hardware sales so far this year. NPD has it doing 270-310k each month and Media create has it doing ~40k/week since week 2, its safe to assume Europe has been pretty stable as well. Also Nintendo reported that smaller regions like Latin America, Middle East & Asia arr seeing increased sales.

Sales are stable so far this year pretty much on the strength of last years titles along with an increased quantity of small-medium sized releases (Nintendo has a 1st party title every 2-3 weeks from late April-mid July.

As for new big tites this year, Smash Bros is set for the year and is a potential 15+ million seller along with Pokemon being highly likely (listed as a possible 2018 release by Nintendo) which is a consistent 15+ million seller. If both those titles release this than the holidays will be huge.

 

So yeah i just feel like 12 million is very low considering Nintendo is confident in shipping 20 million and they have crushed their previous Switch forcasts up to now.