Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

[zorg1000]

 

Louie said:

zorg1000 said:

How am i moving goalposts?

Your original statement that i quoted was that the market did not respond well to Labo.

I asked what that is based on and you said FW sales in Japan.

I provided a dozen examples showing that FW sales of new IP aimed at kids, families or casuals do not mean anything and asked for examples of these type of games with large FW sales.

You have yet to provide any examples.

 

You keep giving long winded responses that dont really pertain to anything we are talking about, you cant use FW sales as proof of the market not responding when most new IP aimed at the target demograhic do not have large FW sales.

I cited two well-known business theories as basis for my prediction and you ignore it. You yourself gave multiple examples of IP's aimed at kids and casuals that sold extremely well from week 1 which I pointed out to you and you ignore it. I even changed my original statement to make it clear that I'm *not* basing this off first week sales alone but the theories of disruption and blue ocean products and yet you ignore it as if this didn't have any weight and call my responses "long-winded" even though they are way more based on facts than just saying "some family products sell well over a longer period". I'm not sure what I can do anymore - in my experience theories based on market data are way better at predicting market reactions and sales than anything else.

So, once again: My statement that Labo was not well received by the market is based on first week sales compared to Nintendo's marketing push, sell-through data and the theories I cited. Nintendogs sold well over the long run because it was a blue ocean product (Brain Age as well). The Wii series sold well over the long run because they were disruptive products. Pokémon sold well because it was an extremely good game that could sell to a huge audience and captured the imagination of millions of kids. I don't see Labo having any of those qualities. I could be wrong, though! Of course I could and because of that I already changed my original statement a few posts ago. 

Also, this is a way better basis for predicting sales than saying "some family products sell well over the long run", because I'm absolutely sure the majority of games or products aimed at casuals, families and kids did not sell well over the long run but just disappeared from the market (like the hundreds of Wii games aimed at those markets that failed to sell). You pick a tiny minority of games aimed at these demographics that sold well over a long period of time to make a point. But if we look closer at your argument, your argument actually supports my theory because it predicts that the majority of kids and casual games is not going to sell well over the long run. It's just that our memories are biased towards the ones that sold well - because of course we don't remember the hundreds of kids toys and products that just disappeared into the nether after a few months. So in the majority of those cases, first week sales actually did predict quite accurately the sales performances of these games. Nintendo games actually bucked the trend during the Wii / DS era, which was why everyone, including Iwata, was surprised by their performance and legs! 

I guess i just dont see how games like Nintendogs, Brain Age & Wii Fit are blue ocean/disruptive but Labo isnt.

You said the Wii series had strong debuts, the 4 examples averaged ~200k. So ~120k is a poor opening but ~200k is very strong?

Im not saying kid/casual games dont often sell poor, just that the examples i gave prove FW sales mean little to nothing in the long run.