The forecast of 16m will certainly be increased, sales to consumers aren't going to drop enough to let that be a viable number.

But let's assume that this number (16m) does not increase anyway:

If PS5 Launches Nov. 2019:

FY18 - 16m (Total: 95m)
FY19 - 11m (Total: 106m)
FY20 - 5m (Total: 111m)
FY21 - 1.5m (Total 112.5m)

If PS5 Launches Nov. 2020:

FY18 - 16m (Total: 95m)
FY19 - 13m (Total: 108m)
FY20 - 10m (Total: 118m)
FY21 - 4m (Total 122m)
FY22 - 1m (Total 123m)


But I fully expect the forecast to be increased to 17-18m.

 

Also another thing worth noting, while last FY shipped less it was the highest sales to consumers by far.

FY16 - Shipped: 20m   Sold to Consumers: 17.51m
FY17 - Shipped: 19m   Sold to Consumers: 20.03m

Obviously sales to consumers is what reflects actual demand rather than shipments, and it's these sales that will drive the current 16m forecast up.

Last edited by Barkley - on 30 April 2018

LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m