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Miyamotoo on 30 April 2018
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jonathanalis said:

 

Why do you think Switch estimations are too optimistic? Switch already have Smash Bros for this year and that definitely isn't only strong heavy hitter for this FY, we could easily have Pokemon for instance in November (with combination Smash + Pokemon Switch would easily hit 20m) and maybe even Animal Crossing in March. Actuayl Nintendo was quite conservative with Switch estimations from launch, its very posible that even this 20m are conservative.

Im based on 17 FY. We had 3 10+ million-ish potential games (MK8D, odyssey and splatoon) and Nintendo shipped 15 million switches. 

For now, in 18 we only have 1 (smash).

Of course momentum will keep it above 17, but if only smash among the 10+ million games(or no price cut), I hardly see 20M.

But if pokemon is ready, I give it to you.

But last year Switch had huge stock problem and Switch would sell even more whitout stock problems, this year Switch dont have those problems and only in Q1 of this calendar year with weak Q1 lineup Nintendo shipped 3m units, from late April through July lineup is much stronger (thats actualy Q1 of FY2018.).

Smash Bros will definitely not be only one huge system seller game in current FY 2018. lineup, they definitely have more announcements for FY 2018. I can bet that we definatly getting Pokemon or Animal Crossing (smaller chanches that we could have both in FY 2018.).

 

Lawlight said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

In Nintendo case shipment means sales at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

No, it doesn’t.

But it does, look at link, those all numbers for each hardware are shipped aka sold units at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 30 April 2018