Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

[jonathanalis]

 

jonathanalis said:
I still think that Sony 2018 PS4 FY estimations are conservative and switchs FY estimations are too optimistic.
I still think switch alone can dethrone ps4 in this year, but by a small margin(~1 million), not by 4 million, like the estimations suggest.

Why do you think Switch estimations are too optimistic? Switch already have Smash Bros for this year and that definitely isn't only strong heavy hitter for this FY, we could easily have Pokemon for instance in November (with combination Smash + Pokemon Switch would easily hit 20m) and maybe even Animal Crossing in March. Actuayl Nintendo was quite conservative with Switch estimations from launch, its very posible that even this 20m are conservative.

Im based on 17 FY. We had 3 10+ million-ish potential games (MK8D, odyssey and splatoon) and Nintendo shipped 15 million switches. 

For now, in 18 we only have 1 (smash).

Of course momentum will keep it above 17, but if only smash among the 10+ million games(or no price cut), I hardly see 20M.

But if pokemon is ready, I give it to you.