In progress NPD predicting tool

[AntonTeiosanu]

Symbios63 said:
So, going forward, here is a detailed explanation on the changes to come and why I do them :

As mentionned in a previous post :

March Overview (Only 8 days of data) :

Amazon :
PS4 : 99.1 ; XBO : 97.2 ; NS : 155.6 ; 3DS : 0
Best Buy :
PS4 : 184.2 ; XBO : 221.9 ; NS : 163.0 ; 3DS : 6.5
Gamestop :
PS4 : 153.8 ; XBO : 142.8 ; NS : 80.2 ; 3DS : 29.6
Walmart :
PS4 : 261.2 ; XBO : 375.4 ; NS : 168.5 ; 3DS : 45.5
Target :
PS4 : 179.9 ; XBO : 177.4 ; NS : 189.9 ; 3DS : 38.0

Overall :

1 - XBO : 961.6 points/day (1.0)
2 - PS4 832.5 points/day (0.87)
3 - NS : 727.1 points/day (0.76)

NPD results :

1 - PS4 : 354k (1.18)
2 - NS : 308k (1.03)
3 - XBO : 299k (1.0)

So we were dead wrong here. While doing the updates, I noticed two lists out of the 5 are not suited for what we try to do : Walmart list is really strange with items going in and out all the time and ranking not really moving as it should. Target list is more easy to understand but ranking takes into account a long period of time.

So what if I remove them ?

Overall :

1 - XBO : 408.4 points/day (1.0)
2 - PS4 379.5 points/day (0.93)
3 - NS : 368.7 points/day (0.90)

Slightly better, the artifactual lead on XBO is less, but we are still far from the truth...

XBO get a lot of point by having many SKU ranking in top 100, even if not very high on the list. So I changed the point system to award more point to high ranking items (#100 = 1 point, #51 = 50 points, #49 = 52 points, #21 = 110 points, #20 = 115 points, #1 = 210 points) :

1 - NS : 551.7 points/day (1.0)
2 - PS4 519.6 points/day (0.94)
3 - XBO : 506.5 points/day (0.92)

Ok, so indeed, XBO lead is gone but now switch is first... I went with the idea that switch might be too high on amazon and best buy and decided to weight retailers as follow : Gamestop : 1, Best Buy : 0.2, Amazon, 0.5.

1 - PS4 : 237.3 points/day (1.12)
2 - NS 216.9 points/day (1.02)
3 - XBO : 212.6 points/day (1.0)

This does look a lot better !

However, by focusing on the only 5 days for which I have all 3 retailers (I have no gamestop numbers for first 3 days...) the "working weighting" becomes : Gamestop : 1, Best Buy : 0.2, Amazon, 0.8 :

1 - PS4 : 363.6 points/day (1.15)
2 - NS 326 points/day (1.03)
3 - XBO : 315.2 points/day (1.0)

So this is probably how I will go from now on. I will post soon to give April summary with both old and new system...
If you have ideas/suggestions...

Oh my god dude you are such a genius